基于ISM-MICMAC的大型体育赛事风险因素研究  

A Comprehensive Study of Risk Factors in Large-Scale Sports Events Based on ISM-MICMAC

作　　者：罗倩 卢月 冉建[1] Luo Qian;Lu Yue;Ran Jian(College of Physical Education of Chengdu University,Chengdu 610000,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]成都大学体育学院,四川成都610000 [2]内江师范学院体育学院,四川成都610000

出　　处：《体育科技文献通报》2023年第11期187-192,共6页Bulletin of Sport Science & Technology

摘　　要：运用文献资料法、逻辑分析法、德尔菲法、数理统计法等,基于社会燃烧理论,从燃烧物质、点火温度、助燃剂三个维度,对大型体育赛事风险因素进行归纳、整合。运用ISM模型探究风险因素之间的内在关系,厘清各因素之间的层级关系和逻辑关系,构建解释结构模型。同时借助交叉影响矩阵相乘法(MICMAC)绘制模型的驱动力-依赖性坐标图进行验证分析,助力大型体育赛事风险管理。研究结果:归纳、整合出大型体育赛事风险因素的3大类6个一级指标16个二级指标,其递阶结构模型包含6个层级,可依次划分为表、中、深三个层次。基于MICMAC得出了大型体育赛事风险因素的自发因素群、依赖因素群、联系因素群、独立因素群,且其ISM模型与MICMAC的影响性质相一致,证明构建的ISM模型具有科学性与合理性。Employing methods such as literature review,logical analysis,Delphi method,and mathematical statistics,this study,grounded in social combustion theory,categorizes and integrates risk factors in large-scale sports events across three dimensions:combustible materials,ignition temperature,and accelerants.The ISM model is utilized to investigate the inherent relationships among these risk factors,elucidating hierarchical and logical connections and constructing an interpretive structural model.Concurrently,the Matrice d'Impacts Croisés Multiplication Appliquee a un Classement(MICMAC)method is applied to create a driving-dependency coordinate graph for model validation and analysis,contributing to the effective management of risks in large-scale sports events.Research findings:The study identifies and integrates three major categories,including 6 tier-1 indicators and 16 tier-2 indicators of risk factors in large-scale sports events,into a hierarchical structure model with six levels.MICMAC analysis reveals spontaneous,dependent,linked,and independent factor groups within the risk factors of large-scale sports events.The consistency observed between the ISM model and MICMAC underscores the scientific and rational nature of the constructed ISM model.

关 键 词：社会燃烧理论 大型体育赛事 ISM 风险因素 MICMAC 

分 类 号：G80-05[文化科学—运动人体科学]