基于改进灰色模糊评判的河流岸线开发利用风险评估  

Risk Assessment of River Shoreline Development and Utilization Based on Improved Grey Fuzzy Judgment

作　　者：叶晓晶 方国华[1] 廖涛 陆洋洋 YE Xiao-jing;FANG Guo-hua;LIAO Tao;LU Yang-yang(College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;Jiangsu Survey and Design Institute of Water Resources Co.,Ltd.,Yangzhou 225000,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水利水电学院,南京210098 [2]江苏省水利勘测设计研究院有限公司,江苏扬州225000

出　　处：《长江科学院院报》2023年第12期7-14,22,共9页Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute

基　　金：江苏水利科技项目(2022013)。

摘　　要：开展河流岸线开发利用风险评估研究是采取合理岸线管理保护措施、维护河流健康的前提与基础。从水质风险、生态风险、社会风险及管护风险4个方面构建河流岸线开发利用风险评估指标体系。采用层次分析法-熵权法计算指标组合权重,改进并耦合灰色聚类分析与模糊综合评判方法,建立河流岸线开发利用风险评估模型,采用地统计分析方法建立风险空间分析模型。对长江南京段岸线进行实例研究,结果表明:长江南京段岸线开发利用风险总体等级较低,但部分岸线风险等级较高;风险等级较高的岸线段多分布于江宁、栖霞及六合区;风险变化受自然因素与人为活动的共同作用。The assessment of risks associated with the development and utilization of river shorelines is the prerequisite and foundation of adopting effective shoreline management and protection measures and conserving river health.A comprehensive risk assessment index system comprising four main aspects including water quality,ecology,society,and management has been developed.Analytic hierarchy-entropy weight is employed to determine index combinatorial weight.The grey cluster analysis and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation are improved and combined to establish a risk assessment model,with geostatistical analysis being utilized to establish risk spatial analysis model.A case study of the Nanjing section of the Yangtze River reveals a low overall risk level,despite some high risk levels at local shoreline segments mainly in the Jiangning,Qixia and Luhe districts.Risk changes are resulted from a combination of natural factors and human activities.

关 键 词：河流岸线 开发利用风险评估 模糊综合评判 灰色聚类分析 空间分析 

分 类 号：TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源]