CMADS降水的时空分布评估及分布式水文模拟--以红河流域为例  

Evaluation and Distributed Hydrological Simulation of Spatial-Temporal Distribution of CMADS Precipitation:A Case Study of Honghe River Basin

作　　者：王洁 陈裕迪 蒿萌 王丽荣 吴苏舒 马燮铫 WANG Jie;CHEN Yu-di;HAO Meng;WANG Li-rong;WU Su-shu;MA Xie-yao(Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;Guangde Agricultural and Rural Bureau,Guangde 242200,China;Hebei Meteorological Disaster Prevention Center,Shijiazhuang 050021,China;Jiangsu Water Conservancy Research Institute,Nanjing 210017,China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学水文与水资源工程学院,南京210044 [2]广德市农业农村局,安徽广德242200 [3]河北省气象灾害防御中心,石家庄050021 [4]江苏省水利科学研究院,南京210017

出　　处：《长江科学院院报》2023年第12期23-29,51,共8页Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute

基　　金：河北省省级科技计划项目(19275408D);江苏省水利科技项目(2020040);国家自然科学基金面上项目(41671022,41877158);江苏省研究生科研与实践创新计划项目(KYCX23_1375)。

摘　　要：无资料地区的水文模拟是水文学研究的难点,虽然再分析资料极大地丰富了无资料地区的气象数据,但其质量仍有待商榷。基于红河流域实测气象资料,利用相关系数、均方根误差、标准差比等指标评估了降水的时间一致性,结果表明中国大气同化驱动数据集(CMADS)与实测降水的年内分配规律一致,且CMADS与所有实测降水的相关系数高达0.89。总体上,CMADS对降水存在一定的低估,能反映大部分降雨情况,但在降水等级0~10 mm存在较大的误报率;空间上,从Kappa一致性、空间相关性、相对误差角度进行分析,结果表明CMADS基本能反映降水的空间分布规律。最后,基于校正后的CMADS数据与实测数据分别驱动SWAT水文模型,使用CMADS的模拟结果在大部分站点要明显优于实测数据驱动结果。故CMADS是红河流域的水文气象研究的重要基础数据,可以为红河流域水资源开发利用提供重要的数据支撑。Hydrological simulation for ungauged regions is a challenge and a focal point in hydrological research.While reanalysis data has greatly enriched meteorological information in these regions,its performance remains debatable.In this study,using the measured meteorological dataset in the Honghe River Basin,we evaluated the temporal consistency of precipitation in reanalysis data using metrics such as correlation coefficient,root mean square error,and standard deviation ratio.Our findings indicate that the annual distribution of CMADS precipitation is consistent with the measured values,with a correlation coefficient up to 0.89.While CMADS dataset reflects the actual precipitation condition,it has underestimated precipitation,especially within the range of 0 to 10 mm.In terms of spatial consistency,Kappa consistency,spatial correlation,and relative error metrics illustrate that CMADS can effectively reflect the spatial distribution of precipitation.Finally,using corrected CMADS data and measured data to drive the SWAT hydrological model,we observed significant improvements in simulation results using CMADS at most stations compared to those using measured data.Therefore,CMADS is a vital source of hydrological data in the Honghe River Basin that can offer data support for water resources management and utilization in the area.

关 键 词：降水评估 水文模拟 无资料地区 CMADS 红河流域 

分 类 号：P339[天文地球—水文科学]