清代滁河流域旱涝灾害序列重建及时序分析  

Sequence Reconstruction and Time Sequence Analysis of Drought and Flood Disasters in Chuhe River Basin in the Qing Dynasty

作　　者：李士毫 毕硕本[1,2,3] 李晓岑 LI Shi-hao;BI Shuo-ben;LI Xiao-cen(Research Base for Scientific Cognition and Protection of Cultural Heritage,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;School of Law and Public Affairs,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;School of Geographical Sciences,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学文化遗产科学认知与保护研究基地,南京210044 [2]南京信息工程大学法政学院,南京210044 [3]南京信息工程大学地理科学学院,南京210044

出　　处：《长江科学院院报》2023年第12期73-80,共8页Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(41271410)。

摘　　要：收集1644—1911年有关滁河流域旱涝灾害记录的历史文献资料,建立当地清代逐年旱涝等级序列,使用频次分析、滑动平均和小波分析等方法,对滁河流域268 a内的旱涝序列变化进行了分析。结果表明:①正常偏涝是清代滁河流域气候演变的主要特征,清代初期以后,该流域涝与偏涝的情况远多于旱与偏旱的情况。②在11 a时间尺度下,滁河流域清代旱涝灾害的出现可以大致分为4个阶段,分别为1644—1720年、1720—1760年、1760—1820年、1820—1911年。③存在9、14、28、55 a左右的主周期。其中,55 a左右的周期振荡最强,为第1主周期,第2、第3、第4周期依次是28、14、9 a。研究结果可以填补该流域研究空白,深化对于历史气候变化的认识,为科学利用水资源和预防灾害提供参考。By collecting historical documents of drought and flood disasters in the Chuhe River Basin from 1644 to 1911,we established the yearly drought and flood level sequence during the Qing Dynasty.By using methods such as frequency analysis,moving average,and wavelet analysis,we examined the changes in drought and flood patterns in the basin spanning 268 years.The findings reveal that:(1)The climate evolution in the Chuhe River Basin during the Qing Dynasty is predominantly characterized by normal and partially waterlogged conditions.Following the early Qing Dynasty,cases of waterlogging and partial waterlogging surpassed those of drought and partial drought in the Basin.(2)Over the 11-year timescale,drought and flood disasters in the Chuhe River Basin during the Qing Dynasty can be divided into four distinct phases:1644-1720,1720-1760,1760-1820,and 1820-1911.(3)The study identifies four primary cycles,approximately 9,14,28,and 55 years in duration.The strongest cycle features periodic oscillation around 55 years,followed by the 28,14,and 9-year cycles.These research findings address existing knowledge gaps surrounding the Chuhe River Basin,enhance understanding of historical climate change,and offer guidance for the scientific utilization of water resources and disaster prevention efforts.

关 键 词：旱涝灾害 清代 滁河流域 序列重建 时序分析 

分 类 号：P426[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]