北京市气象因素与季节性流感活动度相关性及滞后效应分析  

Association and lag effects of meteorological factors on influenza activity in Beijing

作　　者：张莉 段玮[2] 吴双胜[2] 孙瑛[2] 马春娜[2] 张代涛[2] 王全意[3] 刘民[1] Zhang Li;Duan Wei;Wu Shuangsheng;Sun Ying;Ma Chunna;Zhang Daitao;Wang Quanyi;Liu Min(Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics,School of Public Health,Peking University,Beijing 100191,China;Institute for Infectious Disease and Endemic Disease Control,Beijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control,Beijing 100013,China;Center Office,Beijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control,Beijing 100013,China)

机构地区：[1]北京大学医学部公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学系,100191 [2]北京市疾病预防控制中心传染病地方病控制所,100013 [3]北京市疾病预防控制中心中心办公室,100013

出　　处：《国际病毒学杂志》2023年第5期408-412,共5页International Journal of Virology

摘　　要：目的探讨北京市气象因素与季节性流感活动水平的关联性及其滞后效应。方法收集北京市2014—2019年5个流感季监测数据及同期气象资料,对流感活动度及气象因素数据进行统计学描述分析,利用分布滞后非线性模型分析流感活动水平与气象因素的关联。结果2014—2019年北京市季节性流感活动度与日均气温、日均相对湿度和日均风速均呈非线性负相关关系。日均气温在-14.3℃时累积风险最大,RR值为25.42(95%CI:11.84~54.57)。日均相对温度在8.0%时累积风险最大,RR值为36.61(95%CI:24.72~54.22)。日均风速在0.5 m/s时累积风险最大,RR值为3.24(95%CI:1.75~6.00)。结论低温、低相对湿度和风速较小的气候条件与北京市季节性流感活动度水平增强有关,能够增加流感的传播风险。Objective To explore the association and the lag effect between meteorological factors and seasonal influenza activity in Beijing.Methods Meteorological data and influenza surveillance data from 2014 to 2019 in Beijing were collected.Descriptive statistics were used to describe the data meteorological factors and influenza activity.A distributed lag non-linear model(DLNM)was used to analyze the relationship between influenza activity and meteorological factors.Results From 2014 to 2019,there was a non-linear negative correlation between seasonal influenza activity and daily average temperature,relative humidity,and wind speed in Beijing.At-14.3°C,the cumulative risk of daily average temperature was the highest(RR=25.42,95%CI:11.84-54.57);At 8.0%,the cumulative risk of daily average relative humidity was the highest(RR=36.61,95%CI:24.72-54.22);At 0.5 m/s,the cumulative risk of daily average wind speed was the highest(RR=3.24,95%CI:1.75-6.00).Conclusions The climate conditions of low temperature,low relative humidity,and low wind speed may be associated with the increased level of seasonal influenza activity in Beijing,which can increase the risk of influenza transmission.

关 键 词：流感 气象因素 分布滞后非线性模型 

分 类 号：R511.7[医药卫生—内科学]