我国西北疏勒河和党河流域流域径流变化特征及其还原计算分析  

Characteristics of runoff variation and reduction calculation analysis in Shule and Danghe Watersheds in northwest China

作　　者：肖洵 逄敏 汪静娴 王华[3] XUN Xiao;MIN Pang;WANG Jingxian;HUA Wang(Guangdong Research Institute of Water Resouces and Hydropower,Guangzhou 510623,Guangdong,China;College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210008,Jiangsu,China;College of Environment,Hohai University,Nanjing 210008,Jiangsu,China)

机构地区：[1]广东省水利水电科学研究院,广东广州510623 [2]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210008 [3]河海大学环境学院,江苏南京210008

出　　处：《水利水电技术（中英文）》2023年第S02期152-162,共11页Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering

摘　　要：河川径流是气候、降雨等多要素影响的综合反映,内陆河流是维系绿洲生态的重要保障,内陆河川径流的变化直接关系到水资源开发利用,甚至影响社会经济发展。及时识别河川径流变化特征及原因,对水资源的保护与利用具有重要意义。以疏勒河、党河流域为研究对象结合Hurst系数法、Mann-Kendall法、降雨-径流双累积曲线法等方法,对疏勒河、党河出山口径流量进行变异诊断,并进行归因分析。定量计算气候变暖导致冰水融水增加对出山口径流的影响程度并对出山口径流进行还原分析。通过变异诊断确定了近60a来疏勒河出山口径流(昌马堡站径流)、党河出山口径流(党城湾站径流)的变异程度均属于强变异,径流量呈现上升趋势,1997年为疏勒河出山年径流量的突变点、1986年为党河出山年径流量的突变点。通过归因分析,确定疏勒河出山口径流突变是山区降雨量突变以及源头气温突变导致冰雪融水增加导致的,源头地区气温于1986年的阶段性变化导致了党河出山口径流量的突变。降雨、温度对疏勒河出山口径流深影响占比分别为34%、66%。降雨、温度对党河出山口径流深影响占比分别为59%、41%。疏勒河党河出山口径流增大是降雨量增大以及气候变化引起冰雪融水增加导致的。为了实现流域水资源可持续利用和生态修复的长远目标,需要剔除气候变暖导致的冰雪融水增加等有利影响,对敦煌地区长远的水资源压力、潜在的水资源保障风险进行分析。在变异诊断的基础上对出山口径流进行还原计算,可为今后敦煌地区水资源压力的缓解决策提供技术支撑。River runoff is a comprehensive reflection of the influence of multiple factors such as climate and rainfall.Inland rivers are an important guarantee for maintaining the oasis ecology.Changes in inland river runoff are directly related to the utilization of water resources,and even affect social and economic development.Timely identification of the characteristics and causes of river runoff changes is of great significance to the protection and utilization of water resources.In this study,the Shule River and the Danghe River Basin were the research objects.Carry out variation diagnosis on the runoff of Shule River and Dang River using method such as Hurst coefficient method,Mann-Kendall method,and rainfall-runoff double cumulative curve method.Perform a reduction analysis on the runoff by quantitatively calculating the impact of climate warming on the increase of ice meltwater on it.The degree of variation of the Shule River's runoff and the Danghe's runoff in the past 60 years has demonstrated strong variability through runoff variation diagnosis.The runoff of Shule River and Danghe River from the mountain showed an upward trend.Sudden changes in the annual runoff of the Shule River and Danghe River occurred in 1997 and 1986,respectively.Through an attribution analysis,we determined that the sudden change of the runoff from the Shule River was caused by the sudden change in rainfall in the mountainous area and the sudden change in the temperature of the source basin,which result ed in the increase in snowmelt.The phase change of the temperature in the source area in 1986 caused a sudden change in the runoff from the Danghe River.The proportion of rainfall and temperature affecting the runoff depth of the Shule River was 34%and 66%,respectively.The impact of rainfall and temperature on the runoff depth of the Danghe River accounted for 59%and 41%,respectively.We calculated the reduction in the runoff of the Shule River and the Danghe River to eliminate the disturbance of the melting of ice water caused by climate

关 键 词：变异诊断 径流还原 径流变化特征 

分 类 号：P339[天文地球—水文科学]