基于SD的“车-源-网”商业生态系统下电动汽车扩散分析  

Diffusion Analysis of Electric Vehicles in the“Vehicle-Source-Network”Business Ecosystem Based on SD

作　　者：张梅梅[1] 周梦迪 刘硕[1] Zhang Meimei;Zhou Mengdi;Liu Shuo(Department of Economic and Management,North China Electric Power University,Baoding 071000,China)

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学经济管理系,保定071000

出　　处：《工业技术经济》2023年第12期54-64,共11页Journal of Industrial Technological Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目“多微能源网鲁棒协同调度及网间交互价格决策模型研究”(项目编号:72101089)。

摘　　要：为助力“30·60”双碳目标国际承诺实现,以技术突破和商业模式创新破解汽车电动化提速发展是一个重要赛道。因此,本文基于“车电分离”换电模式设计了“车-源-网”商业生态系统(NBE)。此外,为探索NBE对电动汽车(EV)扩散的提速效果,本文建立系统动力学(SD)模型,拟合并预测2015~2035年EV保有量,拟合误差在5%以内。研究表明,NBE对电动汽车扩散有显著提速作用:2030年禁售FV时,NBE环境下2035年EV保有量、EV占比分别是传统商业生态系统(TBE)的1.23倍、1.22倍;2035年停售FV时,2035年NBE的EV保有量、2023~2035年EV保有量年均增速分别是TBE的2.18倍、1.65倍。本文研究为政府统筹EV扩散提速、新能源汽车企业制定长短期策略提供了参考。In order to expedite the realization of the international commitment to the“30·60”dual-carbon goal,it is cru⁃cial to address electric vehicle acceleration development through technological breakthroughs and business model innovation.There⁃fore,this paper proposes the design of a“vehicle-source-network”business ecosystem(NBE)based on the“vehicle-electric separation”power exchange mode.Additionally,in order to explore the acceleration effect of NBE on the diffusion of electric vehi⁃cles(EV),this paper establishes a system dynamics(SD)model to combine the prediction of EV ownership from 2015 to 2035,and the fitting error is less than 5%.The findings demonstrate that NBE has a significant acceleration effect on electric vehicle pro⁃liferation:when fossil fuel(FV)sales are prohibited in 2030,EV ownership and share in 2035 under an NBE environment are respectively 1.23 times and 1.22 times higher compared to traditional commercial ecosystems(TBE);when hen FV sales cease in 2035,the average annual growth rate of EV holdings in NBE for both 2023-2035 and specifically in 2035 is respectively amplified by factors of approximately 2.18 and 1.65 compared to TBE.These results provide valuable insights for government coordination ef⁃forts towards expediting EV diffusion as well as assisting new energy vehicle enterprises in formulating long-term and short-term strategies.

关 键 词：双碳目标 电动汽车 商业模式 商业生态系统 系统动力学 车电分离 

分 类 号：F26[经济管理—国民经济] F42F54