实现碳达峰的阶段性与有效路径研究——基于绿色GDP核算视角  

An Analysis on the Stages and Effective Paths of Carbon Peaking--Based on the Perspective of Green GDP Accounting

作　　者：孙颖 范金 贾卫国[1] Sun Ying;Fan Jin;Jia Weiguo(School of Economics and Management,Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing 210037,China)

机构地区：[1]南京林业大学经济管理学院,南京210037

出　　处：《工业技术经济》2023年第12期95-104,共10页Journal of Industrial Technological Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“‘十四五’时期我国经济有效防范滞胀风险路径研究”(项目编号:21&ZD081)。

摘　　要：党的二十大报告所强调的“有计划分步骤实施碳达峰行动”,客观上要求科学测度绿色GDP中碳减排的阶段性和有效性。本文基于情景分析技术和绿色GDP核算理论,测算了我国绿色GDP的变动趋势。研究发现:(1)加入WTO后,中国参加全球碳减排治理进入新阶段。Ⅰ阶段(2002~2012年),中国为全球碳减排治理的被动接受者,Ⅱ阶段(2012~2030年),中国为全球碳减排治理的积极参与者。以上两阶段可进一步细分为:Ⅰ.1阶段(2002~2008年),碳排放爆发阶段;Ⅰ.2阶段(2008~2012年),碳排放空中加油阶段;Ⅱ.1阶段(2012~2020年),碳排放降速换挡阶段;Ⅱ.2阶段(2020~2030年),碳达峰阶段;(2)只有在低碳排放情景下,我国方可实现2030年碳达峰目标。在低碳排放情景下,技术进步是增强经济韧性的关键,实现绿色转型需要消费、投资、出口“三驾马车”合力发挥作用;(3)新时代碳减排治理的关键在于构建以零碳电力发展为目标的绿色能源供应体系,其中,建立高耗能半导体产业与新能源产业链、创新链的高效耦合机制尤为重要。The Party's report on the 20th National Congress of the People's Party of China(CPC)emphasizes the“planned and step-by-step implementation of the carbon peak action”,which objectively requires scientific measurement of the phase and ef⁃fectiveness of carbon emission reduction in green GDP.Based on the scenario analysis technique and the theory of green GDP ac⁃counting,this paper measures the changing trend of green GDP in our country.The findings are as follows:first,China's partici⁃pation in global carbon emission reduction governance has entered a new stage after its accession to the WTO.In PhaseⅠ(2002~2012),China is a passive recipient of global carbon reduction governance;in PhaseⅡ(2012~2030),China is an active parti⁃cipant in global carbon reduction governance.The above two stages can be further subdivided into:Ⅰ.1 stage(2002~2008),carbon emission explosion stage;Ⅰ.2 stage(2008~2012),air refueling stage of carbon emission;Ⅱ.1 stage(2012~2020),the shift stage of carbon emission deceleration;Ⅱ.2 stage(2020~2030),the carbon peak stage.Second,we can only achieve the 2030 carbon peak under a low carbon emission scenario.In a low-carbon scenario,technological progress is the key to enhan⁃cing economic resilience.To achieve green transformation,the troika of consumption,investment and exports needs to work toget⁃her.Third,the key to carbon emission reduction in the new era is to build a green energy supply system based on zero-carbon elec⁃tricity,among which it is particularly important to establish an efficient coupling mechanism between high-energy semiconductor in⁃dustry and new energy industry chain and innovation chain.

关 键 词：碳达峰 阶段性 绿色GDP核算 非竞争型投入产出模型 SDA分解 技术进步 

分 类 号：F206[经济管理—国民经济] F124.3