气候变化背景下花叶海棠的适生区分析和预测  

Analysis and prediction of suitable area of Malus transitoria(Batalin)C.K.Schneider under the background of climate change

作　　者：史文君 张得芳[1,2] 郭旭栋 SHI Wenjun;ZHANG Defang;GUO Xudong(Academy of Agriculture and Forestry Sciences,Qinghai University,Xining 810016,China;Laboratory for Research and Utilization of Qinghai Tibet Plateau Germplasm Resources,Xining 810016,China)

机构地区：[1]青海大学农林科学院,青海西宁810016 [2]青海高原种质资源研究与利用实验室,青海西宁810016

出　　处：《青海大学学报》2023年第6期24-31,47,共9页Journal of Qinghai University

基　　金：青海省科学技术厅项目(2022-ZJ-902)。

摘　　要：为保护我国特有种花叶海棠[Malustransitoria(Batalin)C.K.Schneider],并选择合适的人工栽培区域,本研究基于86个花叶海棠精确分布点和13个气候因子,利用MaxEnt建立最大熵模型,计算花叶海棠在过去3个气候时期、当前气候条件下及未来气候条件下潜在的分布区,预测气候变化条件下花叶海棠潜在的分布变化趋势及可能的质心迁移路线。根据模型分析发现,影响花叶海棠在我国分布的最主要气候因子为最冷季度平均温度,其次为最冷月最低温度和最干季度平均温度,3个因子的贡献率分别为13.05%、12.08%和11.36%。当前气候下花叶海棠适生区占我国国土面积的26.82%,高适生区以甘肃南部与宁夏南部为中心,主要分布在青海东部、陕西北部、四川北部和西藏东南部地区。随着气候变化,花叶海棠分布区域也在不断迁移,其在我国的潜在分布区会随着温度的增加而增加,同时适生区也在不断北移,未来气候条件下分布质心可能会迁移至内蒙古南部。该结果为其种质资源发掘和保护、人工驯化和栽培方面提供基础数据和科学依据。In order to protect the unique species Malus transitoria(Batalin)C.K.Schneider in China and select its suitable artificial cultivation areas,MaxEnt is used to establish a maximum entropy model to calculate its potential distribution areas in the past three climate periods,current climate conditions and future climate conditions based on 86 precise distribution points and 13 climate factors of M.transitoria(Batalin)C.K.Schneider.Its potential distribution trends and possible centroid migration routes are predicted under the condition of climate change.According to the model analysis,the main climate factor affecting the distribution of M.transitoria(Batalin)C.K.Schneider is the average temperature in the coldest season,followed by the lowest temperature in the coldest month and the average temperature in the driest season.The contribution rates of these three factors are 13.05%,12.08%and 11.36%respectively.Under the current climate,the suitable areas for M.transitoria(Batalin)C.K.Schneider account for 26.82%of China’s land area,with high suita-ble areas centered in southern Gansu and southern Ningxia,mainly distributed in eastern Qinghai,northern Shaanxi,northern Sichuan and southeastern Xizang.Its distribution area would constantly migrate with climate change.Its potential distribution area would increase with the increase of temperature,and the suitable area would also constantly move northward.Under the condition of future climate,its distribution center may migrate to the southern part of Inner Mongolia.This result can provide basic data and scientific basis for the exploration and protection of germplasm resources,artificial domestication and cultivation of M.transitoria(Batalin)C.K.Schneider.

关 键 词：花叶海棠 MaxEnt模型 适生区 气候变化 地理分布 

分 类 号：Q948.4[生物学—植物学]