泾河流域水文气象演变及其变化归因  

Hydrometeorological evolution and its change attribution in Jinghe River Basin

作　　者：刘宇 辜玉慧 刘炎鑫 马孝义[1] LIU Yu;GU Yuhui;LIU Yanxin;MA Xiaoyi(College of Water Resources and Architecture Engineering,Northwest A&F University,Yangling 712100,Shaanxi,China)

机构地区：[1]西北农林科技大学水利与建筑工程学院,陕西杨凌712100

出　　处：《水利水电技术（中英文）》2023年第10期34-48,共15页Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52179048);国家重点研发计划(2021YFD1900600)。

摘　　要：【目的】定量评价流域水文变化特征并开展其归因识别研究是应对气候变化实现水资源合理开发利用的基础。【方法】以泾河流域为研究区,采用滑动t检验、小波分析等方法分析流域1951—2018年水文气象要素演变特征,并基于Budyko假设和双累积曲线定量评价气候变化和人类活动对年、季尺度下流域水文变化的贡献率。【结果】结果表明:流域降水和径流均集中在夏季和秋季,潜在蒸散发集中在春季和夏季,泥沙主要集中在夏季;径流、泥沙呈显著减少趋势,并分别在1996年、1997年发生突变;径流(泥沙)主要存在三个主周期,第一、第二和第三主周期分别为41 a、58 a和15 a(56 a、26 a和16 a)特征时间尺度;在春季和冬季流域径流变化对下垫面参数最为敏感,在年、夏季和秋季流域径流变化对降水最为敏感;人类活动对年径流、泥沙的贡献率分别为93.05%、96.48%,夏季径流、泥沙变化对年径流、泥沙变化的贡献率分别为50.60%、82.87%。【结论】近70 a,泾河流域水文变化均呈显著减小的趋势,人类活动是导致年径流、泥沙减少的主要原因,而夏季径流、泥沙变化主导了年径流、泥沙的变化。研究结果可为变化环境下干旱半干旱地区生态保护、水土流失治理与水资源管理和开发利用提供科学依据。[Objective]Quantitatively assessing the characteristics of hydrological changes in the river basin and conducting research on attribution identification are the basis for the rational development and utilization of water resources in response to climate change.[Methods]The Jinghe River Basin(JRB) was used as the study area to analyze the evolution characteristics of hydro-meteorological elements in the basin from 1951 to 2018 using sliding t-test and wavelet analysis,and to quantitatively evaluate the contribution of climate change and human activities to the hydrological changes in the basin at annual and seasonal scales based on Budyko hypothesis and double mass curve.[Results]The result show that precipitation and runoff in the JRB are mainly concentrated in summer and autumn,potential evapotranspiration is mainly concentrated in spring and summer,and sediment is mainly concentrated in summer.The runoff and sediment showed a significant decreasing trend,and the abrupt change occurred in 1996 and 1997,respectively.Runoff(sediment) mainly has three main periods in the JRB.The first,second,and third main periods are 41 a,58 a,and 15 a(56 a,26 a,and 16 a) characteristic time scales,respectively.In spring and winter,runoff changes are most sensitive to underlying surface parameters,and in annual,summer,and autumn,runoff changes were most sensitive to precipitation.The contribution of human activities to annual runoff and sediment was 93.05% and 96.48%,respectively,and the contribution of summer runoff and sediment changes to annual runoff and sediment changes was 50.60% and 82.87%,respectively.[Conclusion]In the past 70 years,the hydrological changes in the JRB have all shown a significant decreasing trend,and human activities are the main reason for the decrease in annual runoff and sediment,while the changes in summer runoff and sediment dominate the changes in annual runoff and sediment.The research result can provide a scientific basis for ecological protection,soil and water loss control,and water resources ma

关 键 词：泾河流域 水文变化 人类活动 气候变化 Budyko假设 双累积曲线 水资源 

分 类 号：TV11[水利工程—水文学及水资源]