重点产业政策与制造业就业  

Key Industrial Policy and Manufacturing Employment

作　　者：王贤彬[1,2] 陈春秀 WANG Xianbin;CHEN Chunxiu(School of Economics, Jinan University;Institute of Mezzoeconomics, Jinan University)

机构地区：[1]暨南大学经济学院,510632 [2]暨南大学中观经济学研究中心,510632

出　　处：《经济研究》2023年第10期34-54,共21页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(72273052,71773038);广东省自然科学基金面上项目(2022A1515012025)的资助。

摘　　要：在多措并举稳就业的基调背景下,探寻影响就业增长的因素紧要迫切。本文以中国各省五年规划政策文件提及的四位码重点产业为切入点,利用中国工业企业数据系统考察了重点产业政策对制造业就业的影响效应与作用机理。研究发现,重点产业政策显著提升受支持企业的就业水平。渠道分析发现,重点产业政策通过“规模效应”“利润效应”和“效率效应”推动受支持企业增加劳动力雇佣数量。除了对受支持企业的就业扩张有正向影响,重点产业政策还通过信贷溢出效应带动相同二位码非重点企业的就业水平提升。重点企业在金融危机后期也担起了“稳就业”职责,逆势投资以扩增劳动力需求。在宏观行业层面上,重点产业政策还通过行业间关联效应对其他行业的就业产生间接影响。本文研究为进一步理解产业政策与劳动力市场的关系提供了微观和宏观层面的新证据。In recent years,China has faced a sharp rise in employment pressure due to rapid global economic deceleration,escalating international trade frictions,and the resulting slowdown in China's economic expansion.Maintaining employment stability has become a pivotal policy objective for the government.Fundamentally,employment issues depend on economic development,which in turn relies on industrial strength.In practice,industrial policies have played a vital role in enabling China's rapid transition from an agrarian economy to becoming the world's largest industrial country.The five-year industrial plans are an integral part of China's industrial policy framework.Therefore,examining the causal relationship between industrial policies and labor force employment is important both theoretically and practically.Enterprises serve as the primary job providers and the key to stabilizing employment.We aim to investigate the impact of key industrial policies on enterprise job creation.This study develops a theoretical model and conducts empirical regression to objectively examine the causal relationship between industrial policies and enterprise employment.In the theoretical analysis,we assume a monopolistic competition market and incorporate industrial policies into the cost and profit functions of enterprises.The model shows that industrial policies impact firm pricing by changing product values and marginal costs.This influences production decisions and ultimately increases labor demand.Additionally,industrial policies positively affect equilibrium output and profit levels,generating a“scale effect”and a“profit effect”.For the empirical analysis,this paper focuses on industry policies measured by four-digit codes mentioned in the five-year planning policy documents of provincial-level regions in China.We examine the impact of industry policies on employment in manufacturing enterprises using data from the Chinese Industrial Enterprise Database.The results show that industrial policies substantially expand employment

关 键 词：重点产业政策 稳就业 挤出效应 溢出效应 

分 类 号：F424[经济管理—产业经济] F249.2