不确定因素耦合作用下高层住宅建筑火灾温升概率模型  

Probabilistic model for temperature rise in high-rise residential buildings under action of uncertain factors

作　　者：张媛媛[1] 张志伟[1] 张国维[2] Zhang Yuanyuan;Zhang Zhiwei;Zhang Guowei(Shenzhen Institute,China University of Mining and Technology,Guangdong Shenzhen 518000,China;School of Safety Engineering,China University of Mining and Technology,Jiangsu Xuzhou 221116,China)

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学深圳研究院,广东深圳518000 [2]中国矿业大学安全工程学院,江苏徐州221116

出　　处：《消防科学与技术》2023年第12期1663-1668,共6页Fire Science and Technology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3090503)。

摘　　要：高层住宅建筑火灾温升模型对建筑防火设计、风险评估、消防救援具有重要的意义,由于建筑内部可燃物、壁面热惰性、开口因子具有一定随机性,高层住宅建筑火灾温升存在一定的不确定性。对38处城市高层住宅建筑开展了相关调研,并建立了火灾荷载密度、开口因子以及壁面热惰性的概率密度分布函数,构建了城市高层住宅建筑火灾随机场景。在此基础上,基于拉丁超立方抽样法,研究了不确定因素影响下城市高层住宅建筑火灾温升概率模型,给出了城市高层住宅发生火灾时可能的温升曲线及其概率分布,并建立了高层住宅建筑最具代表性的温升曲线。The temperature rise model for high-rise residential buildings is of great significance for building fire protection design,risk assessment,and fire rescue.Due to the randomness of interior combustibles,wall thermal inertia,and opening factor,the fire temperature rise in high-rise residential buildings is uncertain.This study investigated 38 urban high-rise residential buildings,created the probability density functions of fire load density,opening factor,and wall thermal inertia,and constructed random fire scenarios for urban high-rise residential buildings.On this basis,relying on the Latin Hypercube Sampling method,this study further explored the probabilistic model for fire temperature rise in urban high-rise residential buildings under the action of uncertain factors,gave the possible temperature rise curves of fires in urban high-rise residential buildings and their probability distribution,and established the most representative temperature rise curve.

关 键 词：高层住宅 火灾 随机性 概率分布 温升规律 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学] TU972[建筑科学—建筑设计及理论]