东营港航道船舶航行风险评估  

Navigation Risk Assessment of Ships in Dongying Port Channel

作　　者：李成海[1] 杨洪海 胡甚平[3] LI Cheng-hai;YANG Hong-hai;HU Shen-ping(Shandong Vocational College of Communications,Weifang261206,China;Dongying Pilot Station,Dongying257100,China;Shanghai Maritime Univ,Shanghai201306,China)

机构地区：[1]山东交通职业学院,山东潍坊261206 [2]东营引航站,山东东营257100 [3]上海海事大学,上海201306

出　　处：《青岛远洋船员职业学院学报》2023年第4期1-6,共6页Journal of Qingdao Ocean Shipping Mariners College

摘　　要：以船舶自锚地到泊位航行状态为研究对象,基于物元分析法模型,对船舶东营港航道航行过程整体动态风险进行评估,根据信息数据确定的指标权重值,得到船舶航道内航行动态风险评估仿真图,从而为港航管理部门和船公司的安全管理提供理论依据。实船验证结果表明:东营港航道船舶航行过程风险呈现“V”型变化规律,5号浮至9号浮附近风险最大;船舶交通流是影响船舶航行风险的首要因素。Taking the navigation state of a ship from Anchorage to berth as the research object,the overall dynamic risk of the navigation process of the ship channel is evaluated based on the matter element analysis model,and the index weight value determined by the information data is used to obtain the simulation chart of the dynamic risk assessment of navigation in the ship channel,so as to provide a theoretical basis for the safety management of port and shipping management departments and shipping companies.The actual ship verification results show that the risk of ship navigation in Dongying Port shows a"V"shape,and the risk is the highest near float No.5 to No.9,and the ship traffic flow is the primary factor affecting the risk of ship navigation.Based on the matter element analysis model,there can be a scientific and reasonable assessment of the dynamic risk of ship navigation.

关 键 词：船舶 航道航行 物元分析法模型 系统仿真 动态风险评估 

分 类 号：U675[交通运输工程—船舶及航道工程]