基于双层随机优化的农村能源系统规划设计方法  

A planning and design method for rural energy systems based on double layer stochastic optimization

作　　者：刘明浩[1] 霍红阳 韩中合[1] 吴智泉 Liu Minghao;Huo Hongyang;Han Zhonghe;Wu Zhiquan(North China Electric Power University,Baoding 071000,China;SPIC Yunnan International Power Investment Co.,Ltd.,Kunming 650100,China)

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学,河北保定071000 [2]国家电投云南国际电力投资有限公司,云南昆明650100

出　　处：《可再生能源》2023年第12期1675-1684,共10页Renewable Energy Resources

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(52206247)。

摘　　要：在“双碳”背景下,新型农村能源系统快速发展,其中面临一系列重要问题,如建设容量与后期运行之间的耦合关系,不确定参数对能源系统的影响等。为解决上述问题,提出一种基于双层随机优化的农村能源系统规划设计方法。首先,构建针对农村地区能源系统的双层优化模型;然后,通过场景法描述风、光出力随机性,并采用粒子群算法结合混合整数线性规划进行求解;最后,以典型村为例,得到了关于容量配置的pareto最优解集和不同季节下能源设备的最优出力情况。分析结果显示,与优化前相比,3个优化方案平均可以降低成本79.7%,降低碳排放量83.1%,同时风、光消纳率达到88.62%;与确定性模型相比,随机性将会导致运行成本和碳排放量分别上升53%和6%。Under the context of the"dual-carbon"goals,the development of new rural energy systems is rapidly advancing.In this process,it confronts a series of pressing concerns,such as the intricate relationship between initial construction capacity and later operational phases,as well as the influence of uncertain parameters on the energy infrastructure.To address these issues,a planning and design method for rural energy systems based on two-tiered stochastic optimization has been proposed.Firstly,a bi-level optimization model tailored for rural areas is established.Then,the randomness of wind and solar outputs is described through the scenario method,and a solution is derived using particle swarm optimization combined with mixed-integer linear programming.By referencing a representative village,the Pareto optimal set for capacity allocation and the optimal outputs of energy equipment in different seasons are determined.The results indicate that compared to the pre-optimization state,the three optimization strategies can reduce costs by an average of 79.7%and decrease carbon emissions by 83.1%.Additionally,the absorption rates of wind and solar reach 88.62%.When compared to deterministic models,the presence of randomness leads to a 53%increase in operational costs and a 6%increase in carbon emissions.

关 键 词：农村地区 能源系统 随机优化 容量配置 运行优化 

分 类 号：TK51[动力工程及工程热物理—热能工程] TK81[电气工程—电力系统及自动化] TM72