地缘政治博弈中的摩尔多瓦——兼议“德左”的走向  

Moldova in the Geopolitical Game and the Future Trend of"Transnistria"

作　　者：赵会荣[1] Zhao Huirong

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院俄罗斯东欧中亚研究所乌克兰室

出　　处：《俄罗斯学刊》2023年第6期67-85,共19页Academic Journal of Russian Studies

基　　金：中国社会科学院登峰战略优势学科“欧亚地区国家政治经济”(2023—2028年)阶段性成果。

摘　　要：复杂的时空变迁和外部力量的政治博弈之下,摩尔多瓦在独立以后长期面临民族认同和国家身份定位、“德左”和加告兹地区分离主义、国家治理能力弱等问题。受俄乌冲突影响,“德左”以及摩尔多瓦的经济社会形势雪上加霜。西方基于摩尔多瓦地缘战略地位上升大幅增加战略投入,乌克兰和罗马尼亚也加强与摩尔多瓦的合作,促使摩政府采取激进的政策,加速推进罗马尼亚化和去俄化,加快与欧盟和北约合作的步伐,导致摩政府与“德左”当局的关系以及摩俄两国关系持续恶化,摩尔多瓦成为俄罗斯与西方地缘政治博弈的又一个“前哨”。俄罗斯、西方、乌克兰、罗马尼亚、摩尔多瓦和“德左”各有利益诉求,摩尔多瓦以及“德左”的走向存在高度不确定性。预计短期内在俄乌对峙相持不下的情况下,在“德左”及摩俄爆发冲突的可能性不大,但长期看这种风险呈现上升态势。Under the complex time and space changes and the political game of external forces,Moldova has long faced problems such as ethnic identity,national identity positioning,"Transnistria"and Gagauzia regional separatism,and weak national governance capabilities since its independence.Affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine,the economic and social situation of"Transnistria"and Moldova has worsened.The West has significantly increased strategic investment based on Moldova's rising geostrategic status.Ukraine and Romania have also strengthened cooperation with Moldova,prompting the Moldavian government to adopt radical policies,speed up Romanianization and de-Russification,and accelerate the pace of cooperation with the EU and NATO,which makes Moldova's relationship with"Transnistria"and Russia continue to deteriorate,and Moldova has become another"outpost"in the geopolitical game between Russia and the West.Russia,the West,Ukraine,Romania,Moldova and"Transnistria"each have their own interests,and the development directions of Moldova and"Transnistria"are highly uncertain.It is expected that in the short term,with the persistent conflict between Russia and Ukraine,the outbreak of a military conflict among"Transnistria",Moldova and Russia is unlikely,but in the long term,this risk shows an upward trend.

关 键 词：摩尔多瓦 “德左” 地缘政治 俄乌冲突 

分 类 号：D73[政治法律—政治学] D77.511.5.0[政治法律—中外政治制度]