基于GNSS水汽与FY-4A闪电资料的降水阈值模型研究  

Research on Precipitation Threshold Model Based on GNSS PWV and FY-4A Lightning Data

作　　者：王勇 周洲 吴文坛 刘严萍 WANG Yong;ZHOU Zhou;WU Wentan;LIU Yanping(School of Geology and Geomatics,Tianjin Chengjian University,26 Jinjing Road,Tianjin 300384,China;Hebei Province Natural Resources Archives,495 East-Zhongshan Road,Shijiazhuang 050031,China;School of Economics and Management,Tianjin Chengjian University,26 Jinjing Road,Tianjin 300384,China)

机构地区：[1]天津城建大学地质与测绘学院,天津市300384 [2]河北省自然资源档案馆,石家庄市050031 [3]天津城建大学经济与管理学院,天津市300384

出　　处：《大地测量与地球动力学》2024年第1期1-4,共4页Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics

基　　金：天津市科技计划(21KPHDRC00070);天津市教委科研项目(2021ZD001)。

摘　　要：以河北省为例,综合GNSS水汽与风云四号气象卫星(FY-4A)闪电资料,开展降水阈值模型研究,确定降水阈值判断影响指标。设置候选阈值集范围,使用临界成功指数(critical success index,CSI)确定各影响指标的阈值。通过FY-4A闪电资料获取最佳阈值选取模型,对另外3个站点应用最佳阈值选取模型验证研究模型的有效性。结果表明,融合GNSS水汽与FY-4A闪电资料的降水阈值模型正确率约为60%~80%,而误报率控制在20%~40%之间。该模型具有较高的正确率与较低的误报率,可为降水预报提供参考。Taking Hebei province as an example,this paper conducts research on precipitation threshold models by integrating GNSS PWV and the Fengyun-4 meteorological satellite(FY-4A)lightning data.By comparing precipitation,we determine the threshold values for judging the impact indicators.We set a range of candidate threshold values,and use the critical success index(CSI)to obtain the threshold values for each impact indicator.We add FY-4A lightning data and obtain the optimal threshold selection model.By applying the optimal threshold selection model to three additional sites,we validate the effectiveness of the research model.The results show that the precipitation threshold model,which integrates GNSS PWV and FY-4A lightning data,has an accuracy rate of approximately 60%to 80%,with a false alarm rate controlled at around 20%to 40%.

关 键 词：GNSS 水汽 FY-4A闪电资料 临界成功指数 阈值 

分 类 号：P228[天文地球—大地测量学与测量工程]