中国隔代抚养文化、生育年龄选择与人口生育率  

Chinese Grandparenting Culture,Childbearing Age,and Fertility

作　　者：余靖雯[1] 郭凯明[2] 麦东仁 YU Jingwen;GUO Kaiming;MAI Dongren(International Business School,Beijing Foreign Studies University;Lingnan College,Sun Yat-sen University;Guanghua School of Management,Peking University)

机构地区：[1]北京外国语大学国际商学院,北京100089 [2]中山大学岭南学院,广东广州510275 [3]北京大学光华管理学院,北京100871

出　　处：《金融研究》2023年第8期189-206,共18页Journal of Financial Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(71973017、72373166、71973156)的资助。

摘　　要：如何制定配套政策措施释放生育潜能、满足生育意愿、提振生育水平,已经成为社会各界普遍关注的重要问题。回答这一问题既应重视中国特色的家庭隔代抚养文化的现实背景,还应重视家庭生育年龄选择的经济机制。本文建立一个包含家庭隔代抚养文化、个体职业与生育权衡取舍的内生人口增长模型,结合中国家庭追踪调查数据,从理论和实证两方面考察了隔代抚养对个体生育决策的影响。理论分析表明,家庭隔代抚养通过部分替代个体生育和养育子女的时间,降低生育时间成本,使个体更倾向于提前生育,并由此提高了人口生育率。实证结果验证了理论模型的结论:与没有隔代抚养的女性相比,有隔代抚养的女性平均初育年龄更低,平均生育数量更多。并且,对于从事非农业工作、受教育程度较高以及收入较高的女性,隔代抚养降低初育年龄和提高人口生育率的效果更为明显。本文政策含义是政府在优化生育政策时须重视中国隔代抚养文化的影响,通过完善各种配套措施实质性降低生育成本和女性初育年龄。According to the Seventh National Census,in 2020,the total fertility rate of Chinese women of childbearing age was 1.3,which is lower than the generational replacement level of 2.1.China has entered the era of"low fertility".Thus,the formulation of supportive policies to unlock fertility potential,meet fertility desires,and enhance fertility rates has become a crucial topic of concern across all societal sectors.A key factor contributing to the low fertility rate is the trade-off that women encounter between their career and childbearing desires.Few studies have examined the role of grandparenting,a common practice among Chinese families,in alleviating this conflict and increasing fertility rates.In addition,the literature on ferility decision-making only discusses how individuals determine the number of children they have,often overlooking the fact that individuals also have to decide their childbearing age,which is another vital dimension of fertility decision-making.This paper presents an endogenous population growth model that encompasses grandparenting,individual occupation and fertility trade-offs.Using data from China Family Panel Studies,this paper examines the impact of grandparenting on family fertility decision-making from both theoretical and empirical aspects.Theoretical analysis shows that grandparenting partially offsets the time constraints faced by young couples when having children,reduces the cost of childbearing time,and advances the initial childbearing age of young people,thereby contributing to an increase in the fertility rate.Empirical results validate the findings of the theoretical analysis.Compared with families without intergenerational support,those with intergenerational support tend to contain younger women who have given birth on average,and these women tend to have more children.The findings remain robust to various robustness checks,addressing concerns related to endogeneity.Moreover,the effects of grandparenting are more pronounced for women engaged in non-agricultural work,tho

关 键 词：隔代抚养 生育年龄 人口生育率 

分 类 号：C924.21[社会学—人口学] D669.1[政治法律—政治学]