中东地缘环境时空演变及驱动机制分析  

Analysis on the spatial-temporal evolution and driving mechanism of the geo-setting in Middle East

作　　者：陈俊华[1,2] 苏敏 李澳 梁嘉玲 王美君 杨晓璐 CHEN Junhua;SU Min;LI Ao;LIANG Jialing;WANG Meijun;YANG Xiaolu(School of Geographical Sciences,Southwest University,Chongqing 400799,China;Research Centre for Western Asia Geography,Geographical Society of China,Chongqing 400799,China)

机构地区：[1]西南大学地理科学学院,重庆400799 [2]中国地理学会西亚地理研究中心,重庆400799

出　　处：《世界地理研究》2023年第11期30-42,共13页World Regional Studies

基　　金：国家社科基金国别史重大专项项目(2018VJX085);重庆市社科规划项目重点智库专项项目(2021ZDZK21)。

摘　　要：中东是“一带一路”倡议重要的节点地区,深刻分析其地缘环境及驱动机制,对于维护中国经济利益和能源安全,提高中国“大国地位”和国际影响力有着重要作用。通过构建地缘环境评价体系分析中东地缘环境的时空演变特征,并通过地理探测器剖析其演变机制,研究结果发现:(1)以2010年“阿拉伯之春”事件为转折点可将中东地缘环境演进过程划分为温和波动期(2000—2009年)和剧烈波动期(2010—2020年)两个阶段。(2)空间上,地缘结构从伊拉克处于优势地位的“一核”空间结构演变为伊朗独大的“一核”结构。地缘环境从“西高东低、中突出”的空间格局,演变为“东高西低、北高南低”的空间格局,“东进”趋势明显。2020年地缘环境高值区分布在伊朗、土耳其、阿联酋、沙特阿拉伯和科威特等东部和北部地区国家,地缘环境低值区集中在也门、叙利亚、伊拉克、约旦和黎巴嫩等南部和西部地区国家。(3)从驱动机制上来看,中东地缘环境演变是内外部因素综合作用的结果。自然环境条件是支撑力,地缘政治军事关系、地缘经济关系和地缘经济结构是驱动力,地理空间结构是摩擦力,美俄在中东的战略利益博弈是推动力。The Middle East is an important node area of"One Belt and One Road"initiative.A profound analysis of its complex geo-setting and driving mechanism is of great significance to safeguarding economic interests,improving"great power status"and international Influence of China.This study analyzed the spatio-temporal evolution of the geo-setting of the Middle East,and the mechanism of spatial disparity as well.The results show that:(1)Taking the"Arab Spring"in 2010 as the"turning point",the evolution of the geo-setting in the Middle East can be divided into two stages:a period of mild fluctuations(2000-2009)and a period of severe fluctua-tions(2010-2020).(2)From 2000 to 2020,the geopolitical structure of the Middle East has tran-sitioned from"one core"where Iraq is in an advantage position into"one core"dominated by Iran.The geo-setting has evolved from"higher in the west and lower in the east,higher in the center"to"higher in the east and lower in the west,higher in the north and lower in the south"spatial patterns,and the trend of"advancing east"is obvious.In 2020,high-value areas of geo-setting were distributed in northern and eastern countries such as Iran,Turkey,UAE,Saudi Ara-bia and Kuwait,while low-value areas of geo-setting were concentrated in southern and western countries such as Yemen,Syria,Iraq,Jordan and Lebanon.(3)The driving mechanism of geo-setting in the Middle East involves natural environmental,political and military relations and economic relations,economic structure,space structure,America and Russia's Game of Strategy and Interests in the Middle East.Among them,natural environmental acts as the supporting force;political and military relations,economic relations and economic structure act as the driv-ing forces;space structure acts as the friction force;American-Russian game acts as the motive force.Geo-setting evolution is the result of the combined action of internal and external factors.

关 键 词：中东 地缘环境 时空演变 地理探测器 

分 类 号：K901.4[历史地理—人文地理学] D815.4[政治法律—国际关系]