系统故障演化过程中事件综合效用系数计算方法研究  

Research on the calculation method of event comprehensive utility coefficient in the system fault evolution process

作　　者：李莎莎 崔铁军 LI Shasha;CUI Tiejun(School of Environmental and Chemical Engineering,Shenyang Ligong University,Shenyang 110159,China)

机构地区：[1]沈阳理工大学环境与化学工程学院,沈阳110159

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2023年第11期3807-3813,共7页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52004120)。

摘　　要：为确定各事件在系统故障演化过程(System Fault Evolution Process,SFEP)中的效用,衡量对演化过程的贡献,提出了事件综合效用及系数计算方法。研究认为,影响SFEP的要素包括事件、事件故障概率、影响因素、演化过程中的事件演化关系和事件逻辑关系;进而提出了事件效用系数、事件逻辑效用系数和事件结构效用系数来表征这些要素;给出了3个系数的推导过程和计算方法;综合3个系数形成了事件综合效用系数。通过实例展示了计算流程,得到了实例SFEP中各事件的综合效用系数。结果表明:事件综合效用从大到小依次为过程事件、最终事件、边缘事件;对比事件效用系数,事件逻辑效用系数和结构效用系数对实现演化的作用更大;事件综合效用系数是通过所有因素的具体值确定的,只对确定因素值有效。成果可为SFEP增加研究事件效用的新方法。To determine the utility of every event in the System Fault Evolution Process(SFEP)and measure their contributions to the evolution process,a definition and calculation method of event comprehensive utility and its coefficient is proposed.It is considered that the factors affecting the system fault evolution process include events,event fault probability,influencing factors,event evolution relationship,and event logic relationship in the evolution process.Then,the event utility coefficient,event logic utility coefficient,and event structure utility coefficient are proposed to characterize these elements;The derivation process and calculation method of the three coefficients are given;The event comprehensive utility coefficient is formed by synthesizing the three coefficients.The event utility coefficient mainly represents the role of the event itself in the system fault evolution process and contains events,factors,and fault probability.The event logic utility coefficient represents the role of the logical relationship between the event and other events in the macroevolution process.The event structure utility coefficient mainly represents the number of events as cause events and result events in the system fault evolution process.The calculation flow is shown by an example,and the comprehensive utility coefficient of every event in the fault evolution process of the example system is obtained.The results show that in the event comprehensive utility,process event>target event>edge event;Compared with the event utility coefficient,event logic utility coefficient,and structural utility coefficient play a more important role in realizing evolution;The event comprehensive utility coefficient is determined by the specific value of all factors,which is only valid for the determined factor value.There is no similar analysis method and coefficient setting in previous studies.The results can provide a new method to study the utility of events in the system fault evolution process.

关 键 词：安全系统学 系统故障演化过程(SFEP) 事件故障概率 影响因素 结构关系 逻辑关系 综合效用 

分 类 号：X913[环境科学与工程—安全科学]