考虑均值异质性的高原山区公路责任事故严重度风险因素辨识  

Examination of injury severity of responsible accidents in highways in plateau mountain crashes:a random parameters ordered Probit model with heterogeneity in means approach

作　　者：刘德敬 高银钧 田毕江 谢世坤 王洪亮 LIU Dejing;GAO Yinjun;TIAN Bijiang;XIE Shikun;WANG Hongliang(Yunnan Nanjing Expressway Co.,Ltd.,Puer 676299,Yunnan,China;Broadvision Engineering Consultants Co.,Ltd.,Kunming 650200,China;Yunnan Provincial Key Laboratory of Digital Communications,Kunming 650200,China;Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of the Ministry of Education,Tongji University,Shanghai 201804,China)

机构地区：[1]云南南景高速公路有限公司,云南普洱676299 [2]云南省交通规划设计研究院有限公司,昆明650200 [3]云南省数字交通重点实验室,昆明650200 [4]同济大学道路与交通工程教育部重点实验室,上海201804

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2023年第11期4024-4032,共9页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：云南省交通运输厅科技创新及示范项目(云交科教便[2021]6号);云南省交通运输厅科技创新及示范项目(2021902);云南省数字交通重点实验室项目(202205AG070008)。

摘　　要：为明晰高原山区高速公路事故严重度的影响因素及差异,量化事故数据异质性对事故严重度的交互影响效应,基于云南省某高原山区高速公路550起有责交通事故数据,从责任驾驶员、责任车辆、道路特征和责任事故特性4个方面选取潜在特征变量,采用固定参数有序Probit模型和随机参数有序Probit模型,构建考虑均值异质性的高原山区高速公路责任事故的严重度分析模型,并采用边际弹性系数量化分析不同影响因素对事故严重度的影响程度。结果表明,缓和曲线、有其他妨碍安全驾驶的行为、轻型货车、重型货车、多车、下坡以及曲线路段7个因素显著影响责任事故严重度。“驾驶员存在其他妨碍安全驾驶的行为”和“重型货车”的估计系数分别是服从(0.375,0.201)和(0.531,0.988)正态分布的随机变量,总体导致死亡及重伤事故的概率分别增大6.15%和9.61%;当驾驶员在曲线路段存在其他妨碍安全驾驶的违法行为时,重伤或死亡事故概率增大6.54%。当重型货车在缓和曲线路段发生碰撞时,重伤或死亡事故概率会降低8.37%,重型货车因未与前车保持安全距离发生重伤或死亡事故概率会降低9.95%,而当重型货车与小客车碰撞时,重伤或死亡事故的严重度可能性会增大12.66%。This study aims to clarify the influencing factors and their differences in accident severity of highland mountainous highways and to quantify the interaction effect of accident data heterogeneity on accident severity.Based on 550 responsible traffic accident data of a highland mountainous highway in Yunnan Province,11 potential characteristic variables were selected from four aspects:responsible driver,responsible vehicle,road characteristics,and responsible accident characteristics.A fixed-parameter ordered probit model and a random-parameter ordered probit model were used to construct a severity analysis model of responsible accidents on highland mountainous highways considering mean heterogeneity.The magnitude of the influence of different influencing factors on accident severity was quantified using marginal elasticity coefficients.The results show that seven factors(gentle curve,illegal behavior(having other behaviors that hinder safe driving),light truck,heavy truck,multiple vehicles,downhill,and curved road sections)significantly affect the severity of liability accidents.The estimated coefficients of“drivers have other behaviors that impede safe driving”and“heavy goods vehicles”are random variables that obey the normal distribution of(0.375,0.201)and(0.531,0.988),respectively.The overall probability of fatal and serious injury accidents increases by 6.15%and 9.61%,respectively;When the driver has other illegal acts that hinder safe driving in the curved road section,the probability of serious injury or death increases by 6.54%.When a heavy truck has an accident in the gentle curve section and the heavy truck does not maintain a safe distance from the vehicle in front,the probability of serious injury or death is reduced by 8.37%and 9.95%,respectively.When a heavy truck collides with a passenger car,the severity of the serious injury or death accident is increased by 12.66%.

关 键 词：安全工程 事故严重度 随机参数模型 均值异质性 高原山区高速 责任事故 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学]