基于LEAP-LANDIS情景模拟的城市碳代谢格局优化研究  

Optimizing urban carbon metabolism pattern based on LEAP-LANDIS scenario simulation

作　　者：卢宗亮 吴奕龙 黄坛俊 刘洁莹 郑涵 刘晓菁 LU Zongliang;WU Yilong;HUANG Tanjun;LIU Jieying;ZHENG Han;LIU Xiaojing(School of Public Administration,Guangdong University of Finance&Economic,Guangzhou 510320;Key Laboratory of Natural Resources Monitoring in Tropical and Subtropical Area of South China,Ministry of Natural Resources,Guangzhou 510663;Research Center for Digital Government and Data Governance,Guangdong University of Finance&Economic,Guangzhou 510320;School of Culture Tourism and Geography,Guangdong University of Finance&Economic,Guangzhou 510320,China)

机构地区：[1]广东财经大学公共管理学院,广州510320 [2]自然资源部华南热带亚热带自然资源监测重点实验室,广州510663 [3]广东财经大学数字政府与数据治理研究中心,广州510320 [4]广东财经大学文化旅游与地理学院,广州510320

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2023年第12期10-20,共11页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：自然资源部华南热带亚热带自然资源监测重点实验室开放基金课题项目(2023NRMK01);广东大学生科技创新培育专项资金资助项目(pdjh2023a0211);广东省教育厅科研项目(2020KZDZX1097);广东省自然科学基金项目(2021A1515110531)资助。

摘　　要：为实现城市碳增汇减排的精准调控,以东莞市为研究区,构建宏观层面碳排放预测、中微观层面增强城市碳增汇能力的碳代谢格局优化框架,将LEAP模型情景预测的能源消耗碳排放量落实到城市土地利用类型上,并叠加LANDIS模型预测的城市固碳潜力区,识别城市未来碳代谢的薄弱区,进而提出城市碳代谢格局的优化思路。结果表明:1)东莞市未来的能源消耗和碳排放目标背离,减排情景比高限情景更加贴合社会经济发展的实际,需要从工业需求侧节能减排。2)东莞市固碳潜力相对有限,在减排情景下仅有9个增汇节点,碳减排增汇需要建设生态廊道网络骨架、设置碳排扩张带、修复生态基底等措施为保障。3)利用LEAP-LANDIS实现未来碳代谢格局优化的关键是将LEAP模型预测的能源消耗碳排放量落实到城市土地利用格局上。In order to realize precise regulation and control of urban carbon sequestration and emission reduction,Dongguan City was taken as the research area,and an optimization framework of carbon metabolism pattern was constructed for predicting the carbon emission at the macro level and enhancing the urban carbon sequestration capacity at the medium and micro levels.Carbon emissions in energy consumption predicted by LEAP model scenarios were applied to urban land use types,and urban carbon sequestration potential areas predicted by LANDIS model were added.the weak areas of urban carbon metabolism in the future were identified,and then the optimization idea of urban carbon metabolism pattern was put forward.The results show that:1)The energy consumption in Dongguan City in future deviates from the carbon emission target,and the emission reduction scenario is more in line with the actual social and economic development than the high-limit scenario,so,energy conservation and emission reduction should be done from the industrial demand side.2)The carbon sequestration potential of Dongguan is relatively limited.Under the emission reduction scenario,there are only 9 nodes for increasing sinks.The carbon sequestration and emission reduction need to be guaranteed by constructing ecological corridor network framework,setting carbon emission expanding belt,and restorating the ecological base.3)The key to realizing the optimization of carbon metabolism pattern by Leap-Landis in future is to apply the carbon emissions of energy consumption predicted by LEAP model to the urban land use pattern.

关 键 词：LEAP LANDIS 碳代谢格局 情景模拟 东莞市 

分 类 号：F124.5[经济管理—世界经济]