区域规划建筑负荷预测模型研究  

Research on the Load Forecasting Model for Residential Planning Buildings

作　　者：马璐璐 Ma Luu(Tianshui Sanhe Digital Surveying and Mapping Institute Co.Ltd.,Ningxia Branch,Yinchuan,Ningxia 750000)

机构地区：[1]天水三和数码测绘院有限公司宁夏分公司,宁夏银川750000

出　　处：《江西建材》2023年第9期147-148,153,共3页Jiangxi Building Materials

摘　　要：当前,城市区域在规划建筑能源时存在各类单体建筑信息不充足、不能同时通过常规负荷计算软件来预测各类型建筑的冷热电力负荷等问题,文中提出将负荷计算原理和蒙特卡罗模拟法(MC模拟法)相结合的方式预测区域建筑冷热电负荷,首先通过建立符合规划区域建筑的预测随机模型,同时结合规划区信息来对模型变形分布特征进行确定,再依据蒙特卡罗随机模拟法即可得出规划区峰值冷热负荷概率分布、全年逐时负荷以及电力峰值分布,以某城市的一个规划区为背景随机模拟预测了该地区建筑冷热电负荷。结果表明,与传统负荷指标法相比,此次所提方法得出的冷负荷减小了6%,均值减小了20%,并防止出现以往能源供应系统和电力设备中大容量设备的配置问题,给管理者和设计工作人员提供了坚实的技术支持。At present,there are problems in the planning of building energy in urban areas,such as insufficient information on various individual buildings and the inability to predict the cooling,heating,and power loads of various types of buildings through conventional load calculation software.A method combining load calculation principles with Monte Carlo simulation(MC simulation)is proposed to predict the cooling,heating,and power loads of regional buildings.Firstly,a stochastic model suitable for predicting the cooling,heating,and power loads of regional buildings is established,Based on the research results,the deformation distribution characteristics of the model are determined,and then the probability distribution of peak cold and hot load in the planning area,hourly load throughout the year,and peak power distribution can be obtained using Monte Carlo random simulation method.A random simulation was conducted to predict the building cooling,heating,and power load in a planned area of a certain city.The results showed that compared with the traditional load indicator method,the proposed method reduced the cooling load by 6%and the average by 20%.It also prevented the configuration of large capacity equipment in previous energy supply systems and power equipment,providing solid technical support for managers and design staff.

关 键 词：建筑能源 负荷计算 冷热电力负荷 蒙特卡罗模拟法 规划区域 

分 类 号：TU984.12[建筑科学—城市规划与设计]