快速升温下的北极径流变化及其驱动机制综述  

Arctic runoff changes and their driving mechanisms under rapid warming:A review

作　　者：王平[1,2] 黄其威 刘诗奇 于静洁 张一驰[1] 王田野 白冰[1,2] POZDNIAKOV Sergey P FROLOVA Natalia L 刘昌明 WANG Ping;HUANG Qiwei;LIU Shiqi;YU Jingjie;ZHANG Yichi;WANG Tianye;BAI Bing;POZDNIAKOV Sergey P;FROLOVA Natalia L;LIU Changming(Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS,Beijing 100101,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;School ofWater Conservancy and Transportation,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001,China;Department of Hydrogeology,Lomonosov Moscow State University,Moscow 119899,Russia;Department of Land Hydrology,Lomonosov Moscow State University,Moscow 119991,Russia)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所中国科学院陆地水循环及地表过程重点实验室,北京100101 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [3]郑州大学水利与交通学院,郑州450001 [4]莫斯科国立大学水文地质系,俄罗斯莫斯科119899 [5]莫斯科国立大学陆地水文系,俄罗斯莫斯科119991

出　　处：《地理学报》2023年第11期2718-2734,共17页Acta Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金中俄合作研究项目(42061134017);中国科学院特别交流计划。

摘　　要：全球快速升温背景下,多年冻土广泛发育的北极流域水文情势发生显著变化,不仅改变了该地区的生态环境,也对全球气候系统和社会经济带来了深远影响。因此,北极流域水文过程研究已成为当前国际科学界关注的前沿热点问题。本文通过梳理国内外相关文献,系统回顾并总结了北极主要流域的径流时空变化及其驱动机制的研究成果与最新进展;详细分析了欧亚大陆和北美地区的径流变化规律与时空差异;深入探讨了快速升温下降水变化(降水量、雨/雪组分比例)和冻土退化对北极流域径流的直接与间接作用机制。尽管当前北极水文研究在数据积累和科学认识方面取得了重要进展,但仍面临地面观测站点稀少以及气候、积雪/冻土、水文之间响应难以定量等挑战。因此,建立完善的北极流域观测网络并发展具有北极特色的寒区水文模型,是深入理解北极水系统快速变化的基础,也是应对北极地区水灾害风险和提升水资源管理能力的关键所在。Under the background of rapid global warming,the hydrological regime in the Arctic river basins,where permafrost is widely developed,has changed significantly.These changes not only altered the local ecological environment,but also had far-reaching impacts on the global climate system and socio-economy.Therefore,the study of hydrological processes in Arctic river basins has become a hot-spot issue at the forefront of the international scientific community.Based on a thorough review and critical analysis of domestic and international literature,this paper systematically summarizes the research findings and latest progress on the spatial and temporal changes of the runoff of major Arctic rivers,as well as the driving mechanisms behind these variations.In addition,the patterns and spatiotemporal differences in runoff changes between Eurasia and North America were analyzed in detail.Furthermore,the direct and indirect effects of precipitation changes(e.g.,precipitation amount,rain/snowfall fractions)and permafrost degradation on Arctic runoff are thoroughly examined.Despite significant progress in data accumulation and scientific understanding in current Arctic hydrological research,considerable challenges persist,such as the scarcity of ground observations and the difficulty of quantitatively assessing the interactions among climate,snow/permafrost,and hydrological processes.Thus,establishing a robust observation network in the Arctic river basins and developing cold region hydrological models with account for the Arctic specifics are fundamental for gaining in-depth insights into the rapid changes occurring in the Arctic hydrological system.This is also crucial for addressing the risks of water-related disasters and enhancing water resource management in the Arctic region.

关 键 词：北极放大 水文情势 气候变暖 冻土退化 净降水 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学] P941.62[水利工程—水文学及水资源]