供给侧货币政策能解决经济滞胀问题吗——基于MIUP-DSGE模型  

Can Supply-Side Monetary Policy Solve the Stagflation:Based on the MIUP-DSGE Model

作　　者：彭安兴 陈晓东 李雅静[3] Peng Anxing;Chen Xiaodong;Li Yajing

机构地区：[1]广西大学经济学院 [2]西安交通大学金禾经济研究中心 [3]陕西师范大学国际商学院

出　　处：《金融经济学研究》2023年第6期3-17,共15页Financial Economics Research

摘　　要：在全球经济“滞胀”风险上升背景下,结合中国供给侧货币政策实践,将货币放入效用和生产函数,把NK(New Keynesian)模型扩展为MIUP(Money In Utility&Production)模型,以探讨货币政策能否解决经济滞胀问题。研究发现,基于标准NK-DSGE模型的需求侧货币政策,能解决有效需求不足引起的通缩,但无法解决滞胀;基于MIUP-DSGE模型的供给侧货币政策,可解决有效供给不足引起的滞胀,但无法解决通缩。疫情期间中国坚持管好货币“总闸门”,强调调货币政策直达实体经济,促进生产供给,从而实现“保供稳价”;疫情之后随着生产供给的增加,需求不足成为经济恢复的阻力,应合理搭配两类货币政策,从而实现“供需两旺”。In view of the rising risk of global stagflation and the practice of China’s supplyside monetary policy,we set money into both utility and production functions and extend the NK(New Keynesian)model into the MIUP(Money In Utility&Production)model to explore whether monetary policy can solve the problem of stagflation.Based on the standard NK-DSGE model,we find that the demand-side monetary policy only can solve deflation,but can't solve stagflation.Based on the MIUP-DSGE model,we find that the supply-side monetary policy can solve stag⁃flation,but can't solve deflation.During the COVID-19 epidemic,China keep the growth rate of money lowly,and emphasize the money into the real economy dirictly.This kind of supply-side monetary policy promoted the production and stability.With the increase of production supply,in⁃sufficient demand has become the resistance to economic recovery,so the supply-side and de⁃mand-side monetary policies should be reasonably matched to increase economic supply and de⁃mand at the same time.

关 键 词：货币政策 供给侧 稳物价 稳增长 MIUP模型 

分 类 号：F822[经济管理—财政学] F124