两次普查间省际人口迁移格局及影响因素变化  

The Changes of Spatial Pattern and Influence Factors of Interprovincial Migration between 2 National Census Periods

作　　者：劳昕 古恒宇 卢琳 王思童 温锋华[3] LAO Xin;GU Heng-yu;LU Lin;WANG Si-tong;WEN Feng-hua(School of Economics and Management,China University of Geosciences,Beijing 100083,China;School of Geography and Ocean Science,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210023,China;School of Government,Central University of Finance and Economics,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(北京)经济管理学院,北京100083 [2]南京大学地理与海洋科学学院,江苏南京210023 [3]中央财经大学政府管理学院,北京100081

出　　处：《人口与发展》2023年第6期15-30,共16页Population and Development

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“人口迁移与都市圈发展协同机制及政策模拟研究”(72174219);国家自然科学基金青年项目“中国高校毕业生就业流动的空间格局与演化机制研究”(42101226);第七次全国人口普查研究重大课题“基于人口流动特征差异的城市更新策略研究”(RKPCZB06);招商局慈善基金会、中国人口福利基金会青年学者资助计划。

摘　　要：基于全国第六次和第七次人口普查数据,采用空间分析方法和空间自相关分析方法来刻画全国省际人口迁移时空格局,构建重力模型和空间OD模型来分析省际人口迁移的影响机制,通过比较分析来揭示十年间的变化。主要研究结论如下:(1)中国省际人口迁移总的格局未发生改变,主要迁移方向仍是从中西部地区和东北地区向东部沿海地区,而近年来中西部地区人口逐渐回流,东北地区人口流失仍在加剧,北方向南方迁移的人口占比上升;(2)作为驱动省际人口迁移的主要因素,地区经济发展水平影响力在逐渐减弱,而地区公共服务水平、环境舒适度、落户门槛、社会网络等因素对人口迁移的影响在逐渐增强;(3)省际人口迁移存在显著的网络自相关效应,迁出地之间和迁入地之间均存在正的溢出效应,而迁出地邻居与迁入地邻居之间存在负的溢出效应。Based on the 6~(th) and 7~(th) national population census data, this study employs spatial analysis and spatial autocorrelation analysis methods to depict the spatial pattern of interprovincial migration, constructs gravity model and spatial OD model to analyze the influencing mechanism of interprovincial migration, and reveals the changes in the past decade.The main research conclusions are shown as below:(1)The overall pattern of China's interprovincial migration has still not changed,with the main migration direction from the central and western regions and northeast region to the eastern region, while the returning flows to the central and western regions gradually increase,the population outflows from the northeast region intensify,and the proportion of population flows from north to south rises;(2) As the main determinants driving the interprovincial migration,the regional economic development level has a decreasing effect,while the regional public service levels,environmental amenity,thresholds for obtaining local hukou,and social networks have increasing effects,indicating that people′s increasing demands for a good life have played a more important role in their migration decisions;(3)There exists a significant network autocorrelation effect in the interprovincial migration,among which a positive spillover effect exists among the origin regions and among the destination regions,and a negative spillover effect exists among the population flows.

关 键 词：省际人口迁移 空间格局 影响因素 全国第七次人口普查数据 空间OD模型 

分 类 号：C922[社会学—人口学]