人口负增长、城市收缩与国家抉择  

Negative Population Growth, City Shrinking and National Choice

作　　者：庄佳 陈友华[1] ZHUANG Jia;CHEN You-hua(School of Social and Behavioral Sciences,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210023,China;School of Art&Design,Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing 210037,China)

机构地区：[1]南京大学社会学院,江苏南京210023 [2]南京林业大学艺术设计学院,江苏南京210037

出　　处：《人口与发展》2023年第6期31-42,58,共13页Population and Development

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“实现积极老龄化的公共政策及其机制研究”(17ZDA120)的阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：持续繁荣和持久增长已经成为每座城市的共同愿景,然而并不是所有城市都能如此幸运。中国城市化高歌猛进的表象之下,越来越多的城市出现了不同程度的收缩现象。伴随低生育率和低死亡率而来的少子老龄化,以及人口负增长社会的到来,中国收缩城市加速出现,其形成既受到全球层面区位因素的影响,也是长期要素依赖性增长主义与制度安排的结果。在这一过程中出现了空间膨胀与人口收缩并存的悖论,异地城市化下的“人去楼空”,以及中小城市停滞甚至衰败与多数大城市繁荣共存。通过归纳总结西方部分收缩城市现状与后果,中西方收缩城市在产生背景、动力机制及其表现特征三个方面存在一定差异,且中国的城市扩张和城市收缩同步发生,并在未来很长一段时间内将持续存在。基于此,针对收缩城市治理,要从以下几个方面考量:对收缩城市的认知要从多方面、多维度综合考量,城市收缩并非代表倒退或反常;以数字赋能识别收缩城市,构建信息化平台;城市要转变规划思维方式,摆脱增长主义价值范式;促进基本公共服务均等化。Sustainable prosperity and growth have become the common vision for every city, however not all cities can be so lucky.Under the surface of China′s rapid urbanization, more and more cities are experiencing city shrinking in different degree.With the aging of fewer children accompanied by low fertility and low mortality and the arrival of a negative population growth society, the formation of China′s Shrinking city is not only affected by regional factors at the global level, but also the result of long-term factor dependent growth and institutional arrangements.In this process, the paradox of spatial expansion and population contraction has emerged, as well as the “empty space”caused by urbanization in different regions, and the coexistence of the small and medium-sized cities declining and the large cities prospering.By differences between Chinese and western Shrinking cities in three aspects:background,dynamic mechanism and performance characteristics. Based on this,the governance of Shrinking city should be considered from the following aspects:the cognition of Shrinking city should be comprehensively considered from multiple aspects and dimensions,and urban shrinkage does not represent retrogression or abnormality;identify Shrinking city with digital empowerment and build an information platform;when urban planning,it is necessary to change the thinking mode of planning and break away from the growthism paradigm;promote the free flow of labor factors.Urban expansion and contraction occur simultaneously and will continue to exist for a long time in the future.

关 键 词：城市收缩 人口流失 成因 策略 

分 类 号：C912.81[经济管理]