决策点生成策略探析——以持续性暴雨过程为例  

Study on Generation Strategy of Decision Point:Take the Continuous Rainstorm Process as an Example

作　　者：邵颖斌 韩美 江晓南 李羽抒 Shao Yingbin;Han Mei;Jiang Xiaonan;Li Yushu(Fujian Province Meteorological Observatory,Fuzhou 350007,China;The 900 Hospital of Joint Logistics Support Force of PLA,Fuzhou 350001,China)

机构地区：[1]福建省气象台,福建福州350007 [2]中国人民解放军联勤保障部队第九〇〇医院,福建福州350001

出　　处：《气象与减灾研究》2023年第3期227-232,共6页Meteorology and Disaster Reduction Research

基　　金：福建省自然科学基金项目(编号:2021J01457).

摘　　要：基于2022年5月24日—6月20日福建省持续性极端暴雨过程,分析了长天气过程决策气象服务的特征,并对气象服务中决策点的生成策略进行了研究。结果表明,长天气过程决策气象服务影响要素多、动态属性显著、关键节点判断困难。借鉴军事概念“决策点”以定义决策气象服务过程中的关键节点,并在实际业务中梳理出时间和空间要素、突发状况、特殊需求和人为规则4个决策点的触发要素,引入控制规则“if-then”和模糊数学的方法推演出决策点的生成规则。基于触发要素的决策点具有可预测性和多分支生成的特点,长天气过程的决策气象服务策略应在过程开始前或过程初期尽可能全面地梳理出决策点并适当保留人为选择或调整的机会。进一步引入自然决策理论和案例推理方法,将决策点及其内容的匹配和补充纳入决策经验库,构建快速匹配的决策点生成策略,有利于实现更加科学高效的气象防灾减灾服务。Based on the extreme persistent heavy rain during May 24 to June 20,2022 in Fujian Province,the meteorological decision-making(MDM)services for long-term weather processes was found to have the characteristics of multiple influencing factors and significant dynamic attributes,which made it difficult to judge the key nodes of the services,and thus influenced the service effectiveness.The military term Decision Point(DP)was introduced to define the key points,and the triggering elements of four Decision Points were sorted out in actual business,including namely time and space elements,unexpected situations,special needs,and anthropogenic rules.The“if-then”control rules and fuzzy mathematics methods were introduced to derive Decision Point generation rules.The efficiency of MDM can be improved by gaining comprehensive DPs before or at the beginning of a long-term process,and reasonable anthropogenic judgment or adjustment should be retained in practice.Furthermore,it’s necessary to build quick-match generation strategy of DPs by adding the DPs and their emergence into MDM database with Naturalistic Decision-Making theory and Case-Based Reasoning method,which could contribute to the realization of more scientific and efficient MDM.

关 键 词：决策气象服务 决策点 生成策略 持续性暴雨 

分 类 号：P49[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]