家庭农场对农业保险需求的影响因素分析——基于SYS-GMM和分位数回归模型  

Analysis of Influencing Factors of Family Farms’Demand for Agricultural Insurance——Based on SYS-GMM and Quantile Regression Model

作　　者：马林靖[1] 段非凡 MA Lin-jing;DUAN Fei-fan(Hebei University of Technology,Tianjin 300401,China)

机构地区：[1]河北工业大学,天津300401

出　　处：《河北农业科学》2023年第5期6-12,共7页Journal of Hebei Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家社科基金项目“新型城镇化背景下失地农民非正规就业问题研究”(18B RK022);河北省人力资源和社会保障研究课题“农民工和城市人口返乡入乡就业创业现状及对策研究”(JRSHZ-2021-02027)。

摘　　要：基于面板数据构建SYS-GMM模型、分位数回归模型,系统分析了家庭农场对农业保险需求的影响因素,结果显示:(1)核心解释变量中,保险理赔(X_(1))、农业补贴(X_(2))显著正向影响家庭农场农业保险需求,且保险理赔的系数>农业补贴的系数,说明保险理赔对家庭农场农业保险需求影响程度大于农业补贴。控制变量中,农场主性别(Z_(1))、受教育程度(Z_(3))、是否与龙头企业联系(Z_(5))、产业结构(Z_(9))显著正向影响家庭农场农业保险需求;农场主年龄(Z_(2))、经营面积(Z_(4))、是否加入合作社(Z_(6))、农业受灾面积(Z_(7))负向影响家庭农场农业保险需求,但不显著。(2)保险理赔在10%、25%、50%、75%、90%分位点上均提升了家庭农场对农业保险的需求,农业补贴在10%、25%、50%、75%分位点上均提升了家庭农场对农业保险的需求,在90%分位点上抑制了家庭农场对农业保险的需求,且不同分位条件下其影响效应差异较大。(3)“农业理赔(X_(1))×经营年限(Z_(10))”“农业补贴(X_(2))×薪资水平(Z_(11))”“农业补贴(X_(2))×典型农场比例(Z_(12))”3个交乘项的系数均具有显著性,说明经营年限长的家庭农场通过较多的理赔经历增强了自然风险防范意识,农业保险需求高;农业补贴通过影响农民可支配收入进而影响其农业保险投保支出;典型家庭农场能得到更多的农业补贴,因此农业保险支付力度也更强。Based on panel data,a SYS-GMM model and quantile regression model were constructed to systematically analyze the influencing factors of family farms on agricultural insurance demand.The results showed that:(1)among the core explanatory variables,insurance claims(X_(1))and agricultural subsidies(X_(2))significantly positively affected the agricultural insurancedemand of family farms,and the coefficient of insurance claims was greater than that of agricultural subsidies.The impact of insurance claims on the demand for agricultural insurance on family farms was greater than that of agricultural subsidies.Among the control variables,the gender of farmers(Z_(1)),education level(Z_(3)),whether they are connected to leading enterprises(Z_(5)),and industrial structure(Z_(9))significantly positively affected the demand for agricultural insurance on family farms.The age of farmers(Z_(2)),operating area(Z_(4)),whether to join cooperatives(Z_(6)),and agricultural disaster area(Z_(7))had a negative impacton the agricultural insurance demand of family farms,but it was not significant.(2)Insurance claims increased the demand for agricultural insurance by family farms at the 10%,25%,50%,75%,and 90%quantiles,while agricultural subsidies increased the demand for agricultural insurance by family farms at the 10%,25%,50%,and 75%quantiles.They suppressed the demand for agricultural insurance by family farms at the 90%quan tile,and the impact effects varied significantly under different quantile conditions.(3)The coefficients of agricultural claims(X_(1))×operating years(Z_(10)),agricultural subsidies(X_(2))×salary level(Z_(11))and agricultural subsidies(X_(2))×typical farm ratio(Z_(12))were all significant,indicating that family farms with long operating years enhanced their awareness of natural risk prevention through more claims processing experience,and the demand for agricultural insurance was high.Agricultural subsidies affected farmers’disposable income and thus their agricultural insurance expenses.Typical family farms co

关 键 词：农业保险 家庭农场 农业补贴 SYS-GMM模型 分位数回归模型 

分 类 号：F325.1[经济管理—产业经济]