双重情绪交叉感染下重大疫情网络舆情传播研究  

Research on Network Public Opinion Propagation Model of Major Epidemics Under Cross-infection of Double Emotions

作　　者：张亚明[1,2,3] 苏妍嫄 赵桂茹 郭晓宇 Zhang Yaming;Su Yanyuan;Zhao Guiru;Guo Xiaoyu(School of Economics and Management,Yanshan University,Qinhuangdao 066004,China;Center for Internet Plus and Industry Development,Yanshan University,Qinhuangdao 066004,China;Research Center of Regional Economic Development,Yanshan University,Qinhuangdao 066004,China)

机构地区：[1]燕山大学经济管理学院,河北秦皇岛066004 [2]燕山大学互联网+与产业发展研究中心,河北秦皇岛066004 [3]燕山大学区域经济发展研究中心,河北秦皇岛066004

出　　处：《系统仿真学报》2023年第12期2582-2593,共12页Journal of System Simulation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(72101227);河北省自然科学基金(G2020203003,G2020203008);河北省教育厅高等学校科技计划(ZD2020199)。

摘　　要：重大疫情会引起各种网民情绪的爆发,网民极端情绪交互作用在一定程度上决定着舆情走向。考虑重大疫情下网民情绪异质性与交叉感染性,将舆情信息中情绪因素对网络舆情传播的影响量化为强化度、分歧度和交叉感染率3个维度指标,构建双重情绪交叉感染下的SIPINR舆情传播模型;数值求解平衡点和传播阈值,证明了传播平衡点的稳定性;通过数值仿真揭示重大疫情网络舆情传播规律。研究表明:双重情绪交叉感染的存在将促使重大疫情网络舆情传播更加持久;初始情绪传播者比例不同会影响重大疫情网络舆情传播趋势;情绪强化度、分歧度和双重情绪交叉感染率均对网络舆情传播态势具有重要影响。Major epidemics provoke a variety of netizens'emotions.To some degree,the interaction of netizens'intense emotions determine the development direction of public opinion.Considering the complexity and dual emotional contagion,the impact of emotional factors in network public opinion is quantified to three dimensions indicators,emotional enhancement,differences and conversion rates.SIPINR public opinion propagation model is constructed.The equilibrium points and the transmission threshold are estimated and the stability is proved.The law of network public opinion propagation during major epidemics is revealed through numerical simulation.The results show that the dual emotional contagion would lead to a more sustaining network public opinion propagation during major epidemics,the proportions of initial emotion spreaders affect the development trend of network public opinion propagation,the emotional enhancement,differences and conversion rates have important effects on the network public opinion propagation.

关 键 词：双重情绪 交叉感染 重大疫情 SIPINR模型 舆情传播 

分 类 号：TP391.9[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术] G206.3[自动化与计算机技术—计算机科学与技术]