需求不确定下基于鲁棒优化的新旧充电站规划  

Planning of Old and New Charging Stations Based on Robust Optimization under Uncertain Demand

作　　者：高治佳 李星梅[1,2] 许传博 王玉玮 GAO Zhijia;LI Xingmei;XU Chuanbo;WANG Yuwei(School of Economics and Management,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206;Beijing Key Laboratory of New Energy and Low-Carbon Development(North China Electric Power University),Beijing 102206;School of Economics and Management,North China Electric Power University,Baoding 071003,China)

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学经济与管理学院,北京102206 [2]新能源电力与低碳发展研究北京市重点实验室(华北电力大学),北京102206 [3]华北电力大学经济与管理学院,保定071003

出　　处：《华北电力大学学报(自然科学版)》2023年第6期93-99,I0003,共8页Journal of North China Electric Power University:Natural Science Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71772060)。

摘　　要：充电基础设施的合理规划是促进电动汽车行业发展的重要环节,现有研究均未考虑用户充电需求的不确定性对新旧充电站规划的影响。针对这一问题,采用鲁棒优化方法,引入不确定情境集来刻画用户充电需求的不确定性,构建了一个基于鲁棒优化的新旧充电站规划模型。并通过不确定预算来调节不确定集合的大小,以满足决策者的不同风险偏好。此外,将该模型应用于上海市杨浦区电动汽车充电站选址案例中,研究结果表明:(1)需求不确定条件下基于鲁棒优化的新旧充电站规划模型更符合实际,可以更好地应对未来用户充电需求增加的情况。(2)不确定预算对投资成本和建站数量有显著影响,决策者可以根据对不确定风险的偏好程度选择最佳的选址方案。Rational planning of charging infrastructure is an important part of promoting the development of the electric vehicle industry.None of the existing studies consider the impact of the uncertainty of users’charging needs on the planning of new and old charging stations.As for this problem,we adopted a robust optimization method and introduced an uncertain situation set to describe the uncertainty of users’charging demands to construct a planning model of old and new charging stations based on robust optimization.Through the uncertainty budget,the size of the uncertainty set was adjusted to meet the different risk preferences of decision makers.In addition,the model was applied to the case of electric vehicle charging station site selection in Yangpu District,Shanghai,and the research results show that:(1)Under the condition of uncertain demand,the old and new charging station planning model based on robust optimization is more realistic and can better cope with the increase of user’s charging demand in the future.(2)Uncertain budget has a significant impact on investment cost and the number of stations,and decision makers can choose the best site scheme according to their preference for uncertain risks.

关 键 词：充电站选址 新旧充电站规划 需求不确定性 鲁棒优化 不确定情境集 

分 类 号：U491.8[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]