“融媒体”时代突发危机事件微博负面舆情规律预测建模及引导策略分析  

Predictive Modeling and Guiding Strategy Analysis of Weibo's Negative Public Opinion Law of Eemergency Crisis in the Era of"Media Integration"

作　　者：潘强 PAN Qiang(School of Marxism,Harbin Engineering University,Harbin 150001,China)

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨工程大学马克思主义学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150001

出　　处：《情报科学》2023年第10期66-71,共6页Information Science

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究专项项目“基于易班的网络社群话语空间解析与重构研究”(20JDSZ3055);黑龙江省思想政治理论课及“习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想”专题教学改革研究专项重点项目“高校思政课数字化建设与育人效果提升研究”(SJGSZ2022002)。

摘　　要：【目的/意义】随着社交媒体的普及和影响力的扩大,突发危机事件往往会在微博等平台引发大量讨论和传播。在极短时间内突发危机事件可能会对事件主体的形象和声誉造成不可逆转的影响,研究突发危机事件微博负面舆情引导策略能够帮助舆情管理部门有效引导网民负面舆情,提高突发危机事件的应变能力和管理水平。【方法/过程】根据突发危机事件舆情特点建立灰色微分方程,采集突发危机事件历史数据;通过白化微分方程构建舆情规律预测模型,确定突发危机事件爆发临界点;利用残差检验法验证舆情规律预测模型预测结果。【结果/结论】实证分析结果表明,信息公开时间越早,负面舆情越容易得到控制;信息准确度越高,负面舆情传播规模越小;信息完整度越高,负面舆情影响范围越小。【创新/局限】文章提出及时公开信息提升政府公信力、强化信息准确度引导公众理性评判、确保信息完整度提高负面情绪引导效能的策略,以期帮助舆情管理部门更好地控制和化解负面舆情。在后续策略落实中舆情管理部门需要与其他相关部门密切合作,根据舆情规律预测结果及时调整和优化策略。[Purpose/significance]With the popularity and influence of social media,emergency crisis events often trigger a lot of discussion and communication on Weibo and other platforms.In a very short period of time,sudden crisis events may cause irreversible impact on the image and reputation of the event subject.The study of negative public opinion guidance strategies on microblog for emergency crisis events can help public opinion management departments to effectively guide negative public opinions of netizens and improve the response capacity and management level of sudden crisis events.[Method/process]According to the public opinion characteristics of emergency crisis event,grey differential equation is established to collect the historical data of emergency crisis event.The prediction model of public opinion law was established by bleaching differential equation to determine the breaking point of emergency crisis events.The residual test method was used to verify the prediction results of the public opinion law prediction model.[Result/conclusion]The empirical analysis shows that the earlier the information is made public,the easier it is to control the negative public opinion.The higher the accuracy of information,the smaller the scale of negative public opinion dissemination;The higher the information integrity,the smaller the scope of negative public opinion.[Innovation/limitation]This paper puts forward some strategies to improve the credibility of the government,strengthen the accuracy of information to guide the public's rational judgment,ensure the integrity of information and improve the effectiveness of negative emotion guidance,in order to help the public opinion management department btter control and resolve negative public opinion.In the fllow-up strategy implementation,the public opinion management department should cooperate closely with other relevant departments to timely adjust and optimize the strategy according to the predicted results of the law of public opinion.

关 键 词：“融媒体”时代 突发危机事件 灰色微分方程 舆情规律预测模型 负面舆情 

分 类 号：G206.3[文化科学—传播学]