中国财政政策有效性再测度:基于宏观经济不确定性指标构建视角  

Macroeconomic Uncertainty Measurement and Fiscal Effectiveness in China:Based on Macroeconomic Uncertainty Indicators

作　　者：邹甘娜 Zou Ganna

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学会计学院

出　　处：《财政研究》2023年第8期72-86,共15页Public Finance Research

基　　金：国家社科基金项目“我国制造业低碳转型与稳增长协同发展的实现机制与财政对策研究”(23BJY001)。

摘　　要：宏观经济不确定性作为环境变量会影响到经济周期、经济运行以及经济政策的调控效果。研究经济不确定性对财政政策有效性的影响关系到积极财政政策的提质增效。本文采用综合指数法,构建中国经济不确定性指数,并将其作为外生变量嵌入一般均衡模型,考察经济不确定性下各类财政政策工具对经济活动的影响,模拟估算不同经济不确定性水平下的消费乘数、投资乘数、净出口乘数和产出乘数。研究结果表明:第一,经济不确定性对财政政策的有效性存在影响。总体上,财政政策的乘数效应在不确定性较高时期普遍大于不确定性较低时期。第二,在较高不确定性水平下,不同财政政策工具的乘数效应存在异质性。第三,财政政策发挥作用存在一定时滞,多数财政政策工具的乘数效应往往在滞后几期才达到峰值,然后出现衰减。As an environmental variable,macroeconomic uncertainty will undoubtedly affect the business cycle,microeconomic activities,macroeconomic operation and the performance of economic policy.The study of the impact of economic uncertainty on the effectiveness of China's fiscal policy is related to the improvement of the quality and efficiency of active fiscal policy.This paper adopts a comprehensive index method,constructs a Chinese economic uncertainty index and embeds it into general equilibrium model as an exogenous variable to examine the impact of various fiscal policy instruments on economic activities.The simulation is used to estimate various fiscal multipliers including consumption multipliers,investment multipliers,net export multipliers and output multipliers under different levels of economic uncertainty.The results show that:First,economic uncertainty does have an impact on the effectiveness of fiscal policy.In general,the multiplier effect of fiscal policy is generally greater in periods of high uncertainty than in periods of low uncertainty.Second,at high uncertainty levels,the multiplier effects of different fiscal instruments are heterogeneous.Third,there is a time lag in the effect of fiscal policy,and the multiplier effect of most fiscal instruments tends to peak after a lag of several periods and then decline.

关 键 词：经济不确定性 财政政策有效性 财政乘数 

分 类 号：F812[经济管理—财政学]