基于ESDA的中国−东盟区域贸易空间溢出效应研究  

Spillover effects of China-ASEAN regional trade space based on ESDA

作　　者：刘国巍 肖艳 李明昊 Liu Guowei;Xiao Yan;Li Minghao(School of Economics and Management,Suqian University,Suqian 223800,Jiangsu,China;School of Economics and Management,University of Electronic Science and Technology of China,Chengdu 611731,Sichuan,China;School of Business,Guilin University of Electronic Technology,Guilin 541004,Guangxi,China)

机构地区：[1]宿迁学院经济管理学院,江苏宿迁223800 [2]电子科技大学经济与管理学院,四川成都611731 [3]桂林电子科技大学商学院,广西桂林541004

出　　处：《地理科学》2023年第11期1911-1920,共10页Scientia Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(72264007,71764004);中国博士后科学基金项目(2019M650240)资助。

摘　　要：为明晰中国−东盟区域贸易空间溢出问题,本文基于省际视角剖析中国−东盟区域贸易空间溢出内涵,运用探索性空间数据分析方法(ESDA),研究中国31省份2019年和2020年面向东盟的进出口贸易额空间溢出效应。研究表明:①中国−东盟区域进出口贸易的分位数、百分点、标准离差等空间统计特征明显,存在“边缘→中心”空间相依性;②在一阶邻接空间权重作用下,中国−东盟区域进出口贸易的全局Moran's I指数通过显著性检验,表明中国−东盟区域进出口贸易存在空间自相关性;③中国−东盟区域进出口贸易具有较高的变异系数,表明中国−东盟区域贸易存在空间变异性;④中国−东盟区域贸易存在空间相依性、自相关性和变异性,进一步表明中国−东盟区域贸易存在空间溢出;⑤LISA检验发现福建对周围邻域空间产生显著溢出影响,西南地区的贵州、云南、四川省和东南地区的福建、湖南、江西和广东省形成了出口高增长集聚区,为中国−东盟区域贸易空间发展提供决策支持。Under the frameworks of CAFTA and RCEP,ASEAN and China have achieved comprehensive im-provements in various fields such as economic investment,business trade and technological cooperation.To clearly delineate the spatial spillover of China-ASEAN regional trade,this study utilizes the exploratory spatial data analysis(ESDA)method to investigate the spatial dependence,heterogeneity,and autocorrelation among the 31 provinces and regions in China concerning ASEAN in 2019 and 2020.The research shows that:1)The spatial statistical characteristics of China-ASEAN regional import and export trade are evident,and they exhib-it a spatial dependency pattern from the"edge to center."In other words,import and export trade are concen-trated in the eastern coastal regions and demonstrate a significant spatial agglomeration relationship.2)When considering first-order adjacency spatial weights,the global Moran's I index passes a significance test,indicat-ing the presence of spatial autocorrelation in China-ASEAN regional import and export trade.However,under second-order adjacency and spatial distance weights,the diminishing significance of import and export trade suggests that the spatial spillover of trade in the China-ASEAN region displays a spatial attenuation feature as neighborhood order increases.3)Import and export trade between China and the ASEAN region exhibits a high coefficient of variation,signifying spatial variability in China-ASEAN regional trade.However,this high coef-ficient of variation also implies that both imports and exports display spatial non-stationary characteristics.4)The presence of spatial interdependence,spatial autocorrelation,and spatial variability in China-ASEAN re-gional trade further underscores the existence of spatial spillovers in China-ASEAN regional trade.A signific-ant trade imbalance is observed among the 10 ASEAN countries,with ASEAN imports from China forming high growth clusters in the eastern region of the trans-Asian Railway,encompassing Vietnam,Malaysia,Thail-and,and Cambodia.5)Th

关 键 词：中国−东盟 进出口 区域贸易 空间溢出 ESDA 

分 类 号：F742[经济管理—国际贸易] K902[经济管理—产业经济]