基于系统动力学的我国执业(助理)医师需求预测模型研究  

Study on the Prediction of Demand and Policy Recommendation of Practicing (Assistant) Physicians in China Based on System Dynamics Mode

作　　者：党媛 张小芹 张光鹏 苏岱 武宁 Dang Yuan;Zhang Xiaoqin;Zhang Guangpeng;Su Dai;Wu Ning(School of Public Health,Peking University,Beijing,100191,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]北京大学公共卫生学院全球卫生学系,北京100191 [2]江西中医药大学经济与管理学院,南昌330004 [3]国家卫生健康委党校,北京100024 [4]首都医科大学公共卫生学院,北京100069 [5]国家中医药管理局监测统计中心,北京100027

出　　处：《中国卫生经济》2023年第11期44-49,共6页Chinese Health Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金教育学重大(重点)项目(AIA210011)。

摘　　要：目的:以我国执业(助理)医师队伍为研究对象,对我国医师需求系统进行系统动力学预测模型构建,并预测2023—2035年我国执业(助理)医师的需求数量,进而提出推进执业(助理)医师合理配置的政策建议。方法:通过整理相关领域研究成果,总结执业(助理)医师的需求数量影响因素,绘制因果关系图和流图,建立模型的动态反馈结构,利用MATLAB软件选取GM(1,1)灰色模型法、样条插补法、曲线拟合法、移动平均预测法对模型中的需求关键因素进行参数估计。结果:通过文献资料分析发现,执业(助理)医师数量的影响因素主要包括经济、社会、人口、机构4大类因素。本研究构建的系统动力学模型包括1个存量、2个流量、21个辅助变量,执业(助理)医师存量的历史性检验结果显示,2011—2020年该指标的平均绝对百分比误差为1.911。2023—2035年我国执业(助理)医师存量将从440.025万人增长到563.073万人,千人口执业(助理)医师数量从3.08人上升到4.02人,执业(助理)医师需求数量将从481.532万人增长到469.109万人,千人口执业(助理)医师需求数量从3.22人上升到4.64人。结论:以历史数据、其他研究预测参数作为参照构建系统动力学模型进行医师需求预测精度较高,预测结果稳定,可以作为长效模型,为制定卫生人力发展规划提供依据。Objective:Taking the team of practicing(assistant)physicians as the research object,it aims to construct a system dynamics prediction model for the demand system of practicing(assistant)physicians in China,in order to predict the demand quantity of practicing(assistant)physicians in China from 2023 to 2035,and then propose policy recommendations to promote the rational allocation of practicing physicians.Methods:By summarizing the research results in relevant fields and the influencing factors of the demand quantity for practicing(assistant)physicians,a causal relationship diagram and a flow chart are drawn,and a dynamic feedback structure of the model is established.MATLAB Software is used to select the GM(1,1)grey model method,spline interpolation method,curve fitting method,and moving average prediction method to estimate the parameters of the key demand factors in the model.Result:Literature analysis found that the influencing factors of the number of practicing(assistant)physicians mainly include economic,social,demographic,and institutional factors.The system dynamics model constructed includes 1 stock,2 flows,and 21 auxiliary variables.The historical test results of the stock of practicing(assistant)physicians show that this indicator’s average absolute percentage error from 2011 to 2020 was 1.911%.From 2023 to 2035,the stock of practicing(assistant)physicians in China will increase from 4.40025 million to 5.63073 million,and the number of practicing(assistant)physicians per thousand population will increase from 3.08 to 4.02.The demand for practicing(assistant)physicians will increase from 4.81532 million to 4.69109 million,and the demand for practicing(assistant)physicians per thousand population will increase from 3.22 to 4.64.Conclusion:Building a system dynamics model based on historical data and other research prediction parameters for predicting physician demand has high accuracy and stable prediction results,and can serve as a long-term model to provide a basis for formulating health manpower dev

关 键 词：执业(助理)医师需求 预测模型 系统动力学 

分 类 号：R1-9[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学] F241[经济管理—劳动经济]