基于水足迹的多目标农业产业结构优化模型研究  

Research on multi-objective agricultural industrial structure optimization model based on water footprint

作　　者：辛朋磊[1] 杨柳俊[1] 陈玮瑶 周荣[1] XIN Penglei;YANG Liujun;CHEN Weiyao;ZHOU Rong(Nantong Substation,Bureau of Hydrology and Water Resources Survey of Jiangsu Province,Nantong 226006,China)

机构地区：[1]江苏省水文水资源勘测局南通分局,江苏南通226006

出　　处：《水利水电快报》2023年第12期8-14,共7页Express Water Resources & Hydropower Information

摘　　要：为优化农业产业结构,促进产业发展,以江苏省为例,对1990~2021年江苏省农业水量足迹和灰水足迹进行核算,构建了基于水足迹的多目标农业产业结构优化模型,采用SCEUA全局优化算法寻优。结果表明:①1990~2021年江苏省农业水量足迹呈逐年增长态势,灰水足迹则呈先增后降趋势。主要原因是受需求和净利润影响,畜牧渔养殖数量和蔬菜种植面积明显提升,而粮食作物种植面积缓慢下降。②节水型、均衡型和发展型3种情景下的水量足迹较2021年基准值分别削减了25.39%,0.20%和0.86%;灰水足迹较2021年的基准值分别削减了19.69%,0.06%和0.21%;净利润较2021年的基准值分别增长了0.10%,26.28%和21.50%。③江苏省目前的农业产业结构还有一定调整空间,未来产业结构调整的方向主要为稳定粮食生产,稳定农作物播种面积,适度提升蔬菜种植面积,稳定生猪产量并适度降低淡水鱼养殖面积。In order to optimize the agricultural industrial structure and promote industrial development,Jiangsu Province was taken as an example,we calculated the agricultural water footprint and grey water footprint of Jiangsu Province from 1990 to 2021,constructed an optimization model of agricultural industrial structure based on water footprint,and used the SCEUA global optimization algorithm to optimize the model.The results showed that:①From 1990 to 2021,the agricultural water footprint of Jiangsu Province increased year by year,while the grey water footprint increased first and then decreased.The main reason was that under the influence of demand and net profit,the number of livestock,fishery and vegetable plantation increased significantly,while the food crops plantation decreased slowly.②Under the three scenarios of water-saving type,balanced type and developmental type,the water footprint of the three scenarios was reduced by 25.39%,0.20%and 0.86%compared with the base value in 2021,respectively.The grey water footprint was reduced by 19.69%,0.06%and 0.21%from the base value in 2021,respectively.Net profit increased by 0.10%,26.28%and 21.50%,respectively,compared with the base value in 2021.③The current agricultural industrial structure in Jiangsu Province still had space to adjust.The direction of industrial structure adjustment in Jiangsu Province in the future is mainly to stabilize the grain productionsown area of crops,and the yield of pigs,moderately increase the planted area of vegetables,and moderately reduce the area of freshwater fish breeding.

关 键 词：水足迹 农业产业结构 多目标优化 SCEUA模型 江苏省 

分 类 号：F321[经济管理—产业经济]