中国男性婚姻挤压的态势与特征——基于第七次全国人口普查数据的分析  

Trends and Characteristics of Male Marriage Squeeze in China

作　　者：果臻 杨柳清 梁海俐 李树茁[2] Guo Zhen;Yang Liuqing;Liang Haili;Li Shuzhuo(School of Sociology,Huazhong University of Science and Technology;Institute for Population and Development Studies,Xi'an Jiaotong University)

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学社会学院 [2]西安交通大学人口与发展研究所,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《人口研究》2023年第6期91-106,共16页Population Research

基　　金：华中科技大学文科双一流建设项目(城乡基层治理研究团队)的支持。

摘　　要：基于第七次全国人口普查数据并结合第四、五、六次全国人口普查数据,全面分析近年来中国男性婚姻挤压的态势与特征。研究表明,男性婚姻挤压现象及其后果已全面显现:2010~2020年全国婚龄人口性别比急剧升高,预计2036年将升至峰值116.13;与以往主要集中在社会经济发展较为落后的地区不同,当前经济发达且城镇化率较高地区的未婚男性过剩现象也逐步显现;男性婚姻挤压导致男女两性间初婚水平和模式的差异巨大,男性初婚概率较女性明显偏低,未婚男性成婚期望年数大幅增加;农村大龄未婚男性的规模始终较大、比例始终较高,城镇大龄未婚男性群体也日益凸显,2010~2020年45岁及以上城镇未婚男性由176.04万人增至387.77万人;大龄未婚男性的经济资源相对匮乏,对最低生活保障金的依赖加重,在老年阶段处于不健康状态的比例上升且独居比例较高。Using data from China's 7th Census and previous census data since 1990,this paper analyzes the trends and characteristics of marriage squeeze among men in recent decades.Results show that the marriage squeezes among men and its consequences have significantly manifested.The sex ratio of marriageable population has sharply increased from 2010 to 2020,and it is projected to peak at 116.13 by 2036.Unlike in the past,when the phenomenon was primarily concentrated in socio-economically underdeveloped regions,the surplus of never married men in economically developed areas with high urbanization rates becomes apparent.The marriage squeeze among men leads to substantial gender disparities in first marriage probabilities,with significantly lower probabilities of first marriage for men compared to women and a substantial increase in the expected number of years for never married men to get married.The scale of rural involuntary bachelors remains elevated,with urban areas experiencing a growing population of involuntary bachelors.The urban never married men aged 45 and above increased from 1.76 million to 3.88 million from 2010 to 2020.Involuntary bachelors have relatively limited economic resources,increased reliance on minimum subsistence allowance,and a rising proportion of unhealthy and solitary life in old age.

关 键 词：男性婚姻挤压 大龄未婚男性 初婚概率 成婚期望年数 第七次全国人口普查 

分 类 号：C924.2[社会学—人口学] C913.1