基于模糊贝叶斯网络的桥梁施工安全风险评估  

Safety risk assessment of cable-stayed bridge construction based on fuzzy Bayesian network

作　　者：申建红 张静[1] SHEN Jianhong;ZHANG Jing(School of Management Engineering,Qingdao University of Technology,Qingdao 266520,China;Research Center for Smart City Construction Management,Qingdao University of Technology,Qingdao 266520,China)

机构地区：[1]青岛理工大学管理工程学院,山东青岛266520 [2]青岛理工大学智慧城市建设管理研究中心,山东青岛266520

出　　处：《哈尔滨商业大学学报（自然科学版）》2023年第6期760-768,共9页Journal of Harbin University of Commerce：Natural Sciences Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71471094)。

摘　　要：针对目前斜拉桥施工的复杂程度逐渐加大且安全事故频发的现状,为了对斜拉桥施工安全风险进行更准确评估,将贝叶斯网络算法和模糊集理论相结合,构建了针对斜拉桥施工的安全风险评估模型.以斜拉桥施工作业程序为主线,结合文献调研和事故分析,从结构和人员安全风险两方面建立斜拉桥施工的风险因素指标体系.综合考虑风险概率和损失两方面,分别基于贝叶斯网络算法和模糊综合评判法确定风险等级,并根据基于ALARP原则的风险矩阵进行评估.采用该模型对案例桥进行施工安全风险评估,说明模型的评估结果与可行性.In view of the increasing complexity of cable-stayed bridge construction and the frequent occurrence of safety accidents,a safety risk assessment model for cable-stayed bridge construction was constructed by combining Bayesian network algorithm and fuzzy set theory in order to evaluate the safety risk of cable-stayed bridge construction more accurately.With the construction procedure of cable-stayed bridge as the main line,combined with literature research and accident analysis,the risk factor index system of cable-stayed bridge construction was established from two aspects:structure and personnel safety risk.Considering risk probability and loss comprehensively,the risk level was determined based on Bayesian network algorithm and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method respectively,and the risk matrix based on ALARP principle was evaluated.The model was used to evaluate the construction safety risk of the case bridge,and the evaluation results and feasibility of the model were illustrated.

关 键 词：斜拉桥施工 贝叶斯网络 模糊集理论 施工作业程序 安全风险 风险评估 

分 类 号：TU714[建筑科学—建筑技术科学] U447[建筑科学—桥梁与隧道工程]