乌克兰危机与俄罗斯和北约在黑海的战略对抗  

Ukraine Crisis and Strategic Confrontation between Russia and NATO in the Black Sea

作　　者：焦一强 朱艳[2] Jiao Yiqiang;Zhu Yan

机构地区：[1]兰州大学政治与国际关系学院、中亚研究所 [2]兰州大学政治与国际关系学院

出　　处：《俄罗斯东欧中亚研究》2023年第6期115-136,158,159,共24页Russian，East European & Central Asian Studies

基　　金：兰州大学中央高校基本科研业务费重点研究基地建设项目“中亚地区形势变化与‘一带一路’建设”(2023jbkyjd003)的支持。

摘　　要：黑海位居欧亚大陆交汇的十字路口,历来是大国利益交汇与竞争博弈的重要舞台。2014年爆发的乌克兰危机不仅是俄罗斯与西方关系的一道分水岭,同时也是俄与北约对抗升级的重要转折点。特别是克里米亚入俄以来,俄罗斯与西方关系急剧恶化并陷入全面对抗之中,其中黑海对抗是俄与西方总体战略对抗的一个缩影。本文以2014年乌克兰危机为背景,基于黑海地缘战略价值,分析乌克兰危机爆发后俄罗斯与北约不断加大黑海军事存在、频繁举行军事演习以及日益强化黑海战略力量等对抗态势,从“安全困境”、地缘政治与地缘经济利益诉求等维度深入探讨俄罗斯与北约黑海对抗升级的动因,分析黑海对抗给地区地缘政治与安全稳定、沿岸国家区域经济合作、欧洲安全秩序及大国关系与国际秩序造成的冲击和影响。随着乌克兰危机的全面升级和冲突的爆发,俄与北约黑海对抗也在进一步升级和加剧,使得黑海地区局势走向和发展前景充满极大不确定性。The Black Sea is located at the crossroads of the Eurasian continent and has always been an important stage for the convergence of interests and competition among major powers.Crimea Crisis in 2014 was not only a watershed in Russia's relations with the West,but also an important turning point in the escalation of Russia's confrontation with NATO.Russia's relations with the West deteriorated sharply and fell into a comprehensive confrontation,with the Black Sea confrontation being a microcosm of the overall strategic confrontation between the two sides.This paper analyzes the latest confrontation between Russia and NATO in the Black Sea after the Crimea Crisis,such as increasing their military presence,holding frequent military exercises and increasing their military strength in the Black Sea.It also discusses the reasons for the escalation of the confrontation between Russia and NATO in the Black Sea from the dimensions of“security dilemma”,geopolitics and geo-economic interests,and analyzes the impact and influence of the confrontation in the Black Sea on regional geopolitics and security stability,regional economic cooperation among coastal countries,European security order,relations between major powers and international order.With the overall escalation of the Ukrainian crisis,the confrontation between Russia and NATO in the Black Sea is further escalating and intensifying,which makes the future direction and development prospects of the situation in the Black Sea region full of great uncertainty.

关 键 词：黑海 乌克兰危机 俄乌冲突 克里米亚入俄 地缘政治 战略对抗 

分 类 号：D851.2[政治法律—政治学] D851.13[政治法律—外交学] E161[军事—军事理论]