人口老龄化、人工智能对产业结构升级的影响研究  

The Impact of Population Ageing and Artificial Intelligence on Industrial Structure Upgrading

作　　者：曹泽 汪永春 CAO Ze;WANG Yong-chun(School of Economics and Management,Anhui Jianzhu University,Hefei 230022,Anhui,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽建筑大学经济与管理学院,安徽合肥230022

出　　处：《徐州工程学院学报（社会科学版）》2023年第5期90-101,共12页Journal of Xuzhou Institute of Technology：Social Sciences Edition

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“人力资本结构与经济转型研究”(16BRK026)。

摘　　要：研究基于2009年—2020年我国31个省(市)的区域平衡面板数据,运用调节效应模型验证人工智能在人口老龄化与产业结构升级之间的调节作用,并以人工智能作为门槛变量,研究不同人工智能水平下人口老龄化对产业结构升级的异质性影响。同时,通过构建空间杜宾模型(SDM),探究人口老龄化和人工智能对产业结构升级所产生的本地效应和空间溢出效应。研究结果表明:人工智能能够显著调节人口老龄化对产业结构升级的负向影响;随着人工智能水平提升,人口老龄化对产业结构升级的影响从制约逐渐转变为促进,且呈现出逐步增强的趋势;人口老龄化对本地产业结构升级会产生显著的抑制效果,而人工智能则在本地区产业结构升级方面发挥积极作用,同时产生明显的产业结构升级溢出效应。Based on the regional balanced panel data of 31 provinces(municipalities)in China from 2009 to 2020,the study applies the moderating effect model to verify the moderating role of AI between population aging and industrial structure upgrading,and uses AI as a threshold variable to study the heterogeneous effects of population aging on industrial structure upgrading under different AI levels.Meanwhile,the local and spatial spillover effects of population aging and AI on industrial structure upgrading are explored by constructing the Spatial Durbin Model(SDM).The results show that AI can significantly regulate the negative impact of population aging on industrial structure upgrading;with the improvement of AI level,the impact of population aging on industrial structure upgrading gradually changes from constraints to facilitation,and shows a trend of gradual enhancement;population aging has a significant inhibitory effect on the upgrading of the local industrial structure,while AI plays a positive role in the upgrading of the industrial structure of the region and generates obvious industrial structure upgrading at the same time.AI plays a positive role in the upgrading of local industrial structure,and at the same time generates obvious spillover effects of industrial structure upgrading.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 人工智能 产业结构升级 

分 类 号：F062.9[经济管理—政治经济学]