福建省新冠奥密克戎BA.2和BA.5.2亚型毒株引发的本土疫情传播动力学分析及防控效果评估  

Analysis of transmission dynamics and effectiveness of control of local epidemics caused by the Omicron BA.2 and BA.5.2 COVID-19 strains in Fujian Province

作　　者：叶雯婧[1] 吴生根[1] 詹美蓉[1] 黄峥强[1] 蔡少健[1] 陈武[1] 欧剑鸣[1] 黄杰锋 陈田木 邓艳琴[1] 郑奎城[1] YE Wen-jing;WU Sheng-gen;ZHAN Mei-rong;HUANG Zheng-qiang;CAI Shao-jian;CHEN Wu;OU Jian-ming;HUANG Jie-feng;CHEN Tian-mu;DENG Yan-qin;ZHENG Kui-cheng(Fujian Provincial Key Laboratory for Zoonosis Research/Fujian Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Fuzhou 350012,China;State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics,School of Public Health,Xiamen University,Xiamen 361102,China)

机构地区：[1]福建省人兽共患病重点实验室(福建省疾病预防控制中心),福州350012 [2]厦门大学,分子疫苗学和分子诊断学国家重点实验室,厦门361102

出　　处：《中国人兽共患病学报》2023年第11期1065-1071,共7页Chinese Journal of Zoonoses

基　　金：福建省自然科学基金项目(No.2021J01353);中央引导地方科技发展专项(No.2021L3018);福建省卫生健康中青年骨干人才培养项目(No.2021GGB010)共同资助。

摘　　要：目的评价福建省2022年BA.2和BA.5.2毒株引发的本土疫情的防控措施迭代优化的科学性及防控效果,为应对未来新发或再发呼吸道传染性疾病提供科学依据。方法基于传染病动力学理论,收集福建省2022年3月由BA.2亚型和2022年10月由BA.5.2亚型毒株引发的本土疫情的相关信息,建构带有潜伏期和无症状感染者的新冠病毒感染的SEIAR(susceptible-exposed-infectious-asymptomatic-removed,SEIAR)模型,分析2起本土疫情的传播动力学特征,并评估防控效果。结果BA.2疫情的潜伏期为3 d(1~9 d),代间距为3 d(1~5 d),起始R t为3.0(95%CI:2.7~3.3),发病3170例;BA.5.2疫情的潜伏期为2 d(1~6 d),代间距为1 d(0~2 d),起始R t为1.9(95%CI:1.7~2.1),发病1540例;模型拟合BA.2和BA.5.2疫情的预测和实际发病数差异均无统计学差异(χ_(BA.2)^(2)=31.53、χ_(BA.5.2)^(2)=27.88,P>0.05);如未启动应急响应,BA.2疫情将于4月7日达到高峰,估计峰值638035例;而BA.5.2疫情将于11月14日达到高峰,估计峰值685940例;BA.2疫情如提早发现1个潜伏期,规模将下降25.73%,提早2个潜伏期,将下降79.56%,推迟1个潜伏期,扩大13.72%;BA.5.2疫情如提早发现1个潜伏期,规模将下降35.04%,提早2个潜伏期,将下降92.47%,推迟1个潜伏期,扩大19.75%。结论2起本土疫情处置的指导思想和防控措施优化迭代,落实“四早”措施可有效降低疫情规模,且时机越早,控制成效越明显,这为防控新发或再发呼吸道传染病积累宝贵经验。This study evaluated the scientific nature and effectiveness of iterative optimization of prevention and control measures for local outbreaks caused by the BA.2 and BA.5.2 COVID-19 strains in Fujian Province in 2022,to provide a scientific basis for responding to future new or recurrent respiratory infectious diseases.According to the theory of infectious disease dynamics,relevant information regarding the local epidemic situation caused by the BA.2 sub-type Omicron virus strain in March 2022 and BA.5.2 sub-type Omicron virus strain in October 2022 in Fujian Province was collected.The susceptible exposed infectious removed(SEIAR)model of COVID-19 infection with a latent period and asymptomatic infected persons was used to analyze the transmission dynamics of two local epidemic situations,and evaluate the prevention and control effects.The incubation period of the BA.2 epidemic was 3 days(1~9 days),the intergenerational interval was 3 days(1~5 days),and the initial R t was 3.0(95%CI:2.7~3.3).The incubation period of the BA.5.2 epidemic was 2 days(1~6 days),the intergenerational interval was 1 day(0~2 days),and the initial R t was 1.9(95%CI:1.7~2.1).The fittingresults for the BA.2 and BA.5.2 epidemics were good,and no statistical difference was observed between the predicted and actual numbers of cases(χ_(BA.2)^(2)=31.53,χ_(BA.5)^(2).2=27.88,P>0.05).If an emergency response had not been initiated,the BA.2 epidemic would have continued to spread andpeak on April 7th,with an estimated 638035 cases.The BA.5.2 epidemic would have rapidly spread,reaching a peak on November 14th,with an estimated 685940 cases.If one incubation period were detected early,the scale of the BA.2 epidemic would have decreased by 25.73%;if two incubation periods were detected early,the scale would have decreased by 79.56%,and if one incubation period had been delayed,the scale would have expanded by 13.72%.If one incubation period had been detected early in the BA.5.2 epidemic,the scale would have decreased by 35.04%;if two incubation period

关 键 词：新冠病毒感染 传播动力学模型 新发或再发传染病 防控效果评估 

分 类 号：R373.1[医药卫生—病原生物学]