中国和印度的人口红利:基于指数的比较分析  

The Demographic Dividend of China and India:An Index-Based Comparative Analysis

作　　者：宋健[1] 姜春云 SONG Jian;JIANG Chunyun(Centre for Population and Development Studies,Renmin University of China,Beijing,100872,China;School of Sociology and Population Studies,Renmin University of China,Beijing,100872,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心 [2]中国人民大学社会与人口学院,北京100872

出　　处：《人口学刊》2023年第6期68-80,共13页Population Journal

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目:高质量发展视域下中国人口均衡发展的理论建构与多维测度研究(20&ZD173)。

摘　　要：中国和印度是目前世界上仅有的人口超过10亿的大国,中印两国的人口与社会经济发展,特别是关于“人口红利”的议题引起了广泛关注。多数研究将人口抚养比等指标对经济增长的贡献等同于人口红利,缺乏对社会经济条件的考察;部分文献虽然在描述“人口机会”时加入了关于经济社会因素的讨论,但缺少实证研究。本文综合考虑人口机会和经济条件构建人口红利指数,对1990-2021年期间中国和印度的人口红利进行整体性和阶段性的比较,并在此基础上讨论其与经济增长之间的关系,预测未来变化趋势。研究发现观察期内中印两国的人口红利均呈现增长态势,中国的人口红利指数和经济条件指数始终高于印度,但人口机会指数在2012年以后低于印度。中国和印度人口红利的差距呈现阶段性特征,大体经历了人口机会和经济条件博弈下的相对稳定阶段(1990-2011年)和经济条件主导下的逐渐扩大阶段(2012-2021年),虽然第二阶段中国人口机会指数低于印度,但在经济条件驱动下人口红利指数仍高于印度。人口红利指数与人均GDP之间具有显著正向关系,且经济条件指数所表现出来的正向影响相对更大。基于ARIMA模型的预测结果显示2022-2035年期间,中国的人口红利依然高于印度,两国间的差距将进一步扩大。文章还对人口老龄化背景下的第二次和第三次人口红利进行讨论。China and India are the only major countries in the world with a population of more than 1 billion people.The population and socio-economic development of China and India,especially the issue of“demo⁃graphic dividend”,has attracted wide attention.Most studies equate the contribution of population depen⁃dency ratio and other indicators to economic growth with demographic dividend,and lack the investigation of social and economic conditions.Although some studies have included the discussion of economic and social factors in the description of“population opportunity”,the empirical research is almost absent.This paper constructs an evaluation system of the demographic dividend index that integrates the demographic opportunity and the economic condition,calculates the demographic dividend index of China and India in a holistic and phased way during 1990-2021,following a discussion on the relationship between demographic dividend index and economic development and a prediction of the future development.The results show that the demographic dividend of both China and India showed an increasing trend during 1990-2021.China’s demographic dividend index and economic condition index were always higher than India’s,but the population opportunity index began to be lower than India’s since 2012.The gap of demographic divi⁃dend between China and India presents phased characteristics,generally experiencing two development stages:the relatively stable stage(1990-2011)under the balance of population opportunity and economic conditions,and the gradually expanding stage(2012-2021)dominated by economic conditions.Although the population opportunity index of China in the second stage is lower than that of India,driven by eco⁃nomic conditions,the demographic dividend index is still higher than India.There is a significant positive relationship between the population dividend index and per capita GDP,and the positive impact of the economic conditions index is relatively greater.Projections based on the ARIMA model

关 键 词：人口红利 人口机会 经济条件 中印比较 指数构建 

分 类 号：C924.1[社会学—人口学]