基于APCS-MLR的水库型饮用水源水质污染源识别与贡献率分析  

Pollution Sources Identification and Contribution Rate Analysis for a Reservoir-based Drinking Water Source Using APCS-MLR

作　　者：夏志昌 夏继红[2] 陈晓蕾 蔡旺炜 陈敬润 XIA Zhi-chang;XIA Ji-hong;CHEN Xiao-lei;CAI Wang-wei;CHEN Jing-run(Water Conservancy Operation Management Center,Wenzhou 325002,Zhejiang Province,China;College of Agricultural Science and Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,Jiangsu Province,China)

机构地区：[1]温州市水利运行管理中心,浙江温州325002 [2]河海大学农业科学与工程学院,江苏南京211100

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2023年第12期113-118,共6页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：浙江省水利科技重点项目(RB1915)。

摘　　要：准确评价饮用水源地水质状况和精准追溯污染源是实现水库型饮用水源地水质精细化管理的基础。以温州市珊溪水库为研究对象,将绝对主成分评分(Absolute Principal Component Score, APCS)与多元线性回归(Multivariate Linear Regression, MLR)相结合的方法(APCS-MLR)用于定量评价水库水质状况,识别污染源类型,解析污染源分布和贡献率。结果显示,珊溪水库水质总体良好,但仍存在污染风险,其污染源主要为城镇生活污染、农村面源污染和水土流失,未知污染源不可忽视,污染源分布存在显著的时空变异性。实践表明,基于APCS-MLR识别水库型饮用水源地污染源的类型和贡献是可行的。Reservoir-based drinking water sources play an important role in human drinking water safety.The accurate assessment of water quality and accurate tracing of water pollution sources are the necessary basis for refining water quality management in reservoir-based drink⁃ing water sources.How to combine water quality assessment and pollution source tracing is still a very challenging problem.Benefit by the ex⁃tensive application of Absolute Principal Component Score(APCS)and Multivariate Linear Regression(MLR)in environmental pollution assessment and tracing,this paper combines the APCS with MLR to establish a method of APCS-MLR for water quality quantitative assess⁃ment and water pollution tracing analysis of a reservoir-based drinking water source.Taking Shanxi Reservoir(total storage capacity 1.824 billion m^(3))in Wenzhou,Zhejiang Province,China as the study area,continuous water environment monitoring is carried out at 25 fixed monitoring sample sites during 2017-2022 AD,and the water quality dataset of 550 sample sizes including the water quality factors of pH,Dissolved Oxygen,Permanganate Index,Total Phosphorus,Total Nitrogen,Redox Potential,Fecal Escherichia Coli and Turbidity have been obtained.Based on the above basic data,the APCS-MLR method is used to quantitatively evaluate the water quality of Shanxi Reservoir, identify the types of water pollution sources, and quantitatively analyze the distribution and contribution rate of different types of pollu⁃tion sources. The results show that ① the water quality of Shanxi Reservoir is generally good, but there is a risk of water pollution;② themain sources of water pollution risk are urban domestic pollution, rural non-point source pollution and soil erosion, and the unknown pollu⁃tion sources that cannot be ignored;③ the distribution of water pollution sources has significant temporal and spatial variability;④ waterquality factors such as Permanganate Index, Total Phosphorus and Total Nitrogen are mainly affected by rural non-point source po

关 键 词：饮用水源地 水库 水质 定量评价 污染源解析 

分 类 号：TV697[水利工程—水利水电工程] X824[环境科学与工程—环境工程]