基于分布滞后非线性模型探讨南宁市手足口病的发病与气象因素的关联  

Study on the relationship between the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease and meteorological factors in Nanning City based on the distribution lag nonlinear model

作　　者：梁东旭 康强 曾毅[3] 谢志春[2] LIANG Dongxu;KANG Qiang;ZENG Yi;XIE Zhichun(Department of Biostatistics,School of Public Health ard Management,Guangxi University of Chinese Medicine,Nanning 530200,China;Department of Epidemiology,School of Public Health,Guangxi Medical University,Nanning 533021,China;Department of Infectious Disease Control,Nanning Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Nanning 530002,China)

机构地区：[1]广西中医药大学公共卫生与管理学院生物统计学教研室,南宁530200 [2]广西医科大学公共卫生学院流行病学教研室,南宁533021 [3]南宁市疾病预防控制中心传染病防制科,南宁530002

出　　处：《中华疾病控制杂志》2023年第11期1254-1261,共8页Chinese Journal of Disease Control & Prevention

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(81460512)。

摘　　要：目的探讨气象因素对手足口病(hand-foot-mouth disease,HFMD)发病的影响与滞后效应。方法收集整理南宁市2010―2019年HFMD日发病数据及同期气象资料,运用分布滞后非线性模型(distributed lag non-linear models,DLNM)分析南宁市HFMD发病与气象因素的相关性。结果南宁市2010―2019年HFMD累计报告508984例,发病主高峰在每年4―6月,次高峰在9―10月;男女报告发病率之比为1.57∶1,以幼托儿童和散居儿童为主。HFMD发病与气温、相对湿度和日照时数呈正相关,与气压呈负相关。气温为35.0℃,滞后d 9时RR值最大(RR=1.058,95%CI:1.037~1.079);相对湿度为86.0%,滞后d 14时RR值最大(RR=1.011,95%CI:1.007~1.014);气压呈“双峰”现象,气压为990.0 hpa滞后d 4时RR值最大(RR=1.022,95%CI:1.017~1.027),气压为1030.0 hpa滞后d 5时RR值最大(RR=1.054,95%CI:0.988~1.124);日照时数为7.0 h/d,滞后d 5时RR值最大(RR=1.017,95%CI:1.009~1.025);极高温、极高压、极低温和极低湿度对HFMD发病也有明显滞后效应。结论南宁市HFMD发病与气象因素相关,可利用气象因素预测HFMD发展趋势。Objective This study aims to investigate the influence and lag effects of meteorological factors on the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease disease(HFMD).Methods Daily HFMD incidence data and concurrent meteorological data from 2010 to 2019 were collected and analyzed.The distributed lag non-linear model(DLNM)was utilized to examine the correlation between HFMD incidence and meteorological factors in Nanning.Results From 2010 to 2019,a total of 508984 HFMD cases were reported in Nanning,with primary peaks observed from April to June and secondary peaks from September to October.The incidence rate for males to females was 1.57∶1,primarily among nursery-aged and home-based children.HFMD incidence exhibited a positive correlation with average temperature,relative humidity,and sunshine duration,and a negative correlation with atmospheric pressure.At 35.0℃,the mean temperature exhibited the highest RR value on the 9th day(RR=1.058,95%CI:1.037-1.079);At 86.0%,the relative humidity peaked on the 14th day(RR=1.011,95%CI:1.007-1.014);Atmospheric pressure displayed a"double peak"phenomenon,with the highest RR value at 990.0 hPa on the 7th day(RR=1.022,95%CI:1.017-1.027),and at 1030.0 hPa on the 5th day(RR=1.054,95%CI:0.988-1.124);At 7.0 h/d,the sunshine duration revealed the maximum RR value on the 5th lag day(RR=1.017,95%CI:1.009-1.025).Notably,extreme heat,high-pressure,cold,and dry effects also demonstrated a significant lag effect on the onset of HFMD.Conclusions HFMD presents a severe epidemic situation in Nanning.The incidence of HFMD is significantly associated with meteorological factors.Meteorological factors can be leveraged to predict the disease′s development trend.

关 键 词：手足口病 气象因素 分布滞后非线性模型 

分 类 号：R181.3[医药卫生—流行病学]