汾河灌区降水量多时间尺度分析与预测  

Analysis and Forecast of Precipitation at Different Time Scales in Fenhe River Irrigation Area

作　　者：李扬 秦聪[1] 牛永华[1] LI Yang;QIN Cong;NIU Yonghua(College of Water Resources Science and Engineering,Taiyuan University of Technology,Taiyuan 030024,China)

机构地区：[1]太原理工大学水利科学与工程学院,山西太原030024

出　　处：《水资源开发与管理》2023年第10期1-7,共7页Water Resources Development and Management

基　　金：山西省水利科学技术研究与推广项目“基于降水量预测的汾河灌区动态农业水价研究”(2023GM21)。

摘　　要：本文基于小波分析方法,分析了汾河灌区介休灌溉区域1954—2022年降水量变化趋势,进而通过模型的筛选与检验,确定选用ARMA(2,0)模型对研究区降水量进行拟合与预测。结果表明,研究区降水量在1954—2022年存在4个主周期:5年、10年、15年、25年,且降水量的变化趋势与时间尺度存在密切的关系,其未来降水呈增多趋势;ARMA(2,0)模型的模拟结果基本能够反映介休灌溉区域1954—2022年间降水量的波动特征和演变规律,采用Static Forecast方法求得的介休灌溉区域2023年降水量预测值为641.21mm。Based on the wavelet analysis method,this paper analyzes the precipitation variation trend in Jiexiu Irrigation Area of Fenhe River Basin from 1954 to 2022.Subsequently,through model selection and verification,the ARMA(2,0)model is identified as suitable for fitting and forecasting the precipitation in the study area.The results indicate the presence of four main cycles in the precipitation data for the period 1954—2022:5 years,10 years,15 years,and 25 years.The variations in precipitation are closely related to different time scales,and there is an increasing trend in future precipitation.The simulation results of the ARMA(2,0)model effectively reflect the fluctuation characteristics and evolutionary patterns of precipitation in Jiexiu Irrigation Area from 1954 to 2022.Using the Static Forecast method,the predicted precipitation value for Jiexiu Irrigation Area in 2023 is 641.21mm.

关 键 词：汾河灌区 降水量 多时间尺度 小波分析 ARMA模型 

分 类 号：TV125[水利工程—水文学及水资源]