中国基础货币投放的宏观经济效应变化——基于TVP-VAR模型的实证研究  

Changes in the Macroeconomic Effects of Base Money Injection in China:An Empirical Study Based on the TVP-VAR Model

作　　者：丁尚宇 Ding Shangyu

机构地区：[1]中国宏观经济研究院经济研究所

出　　处：《宏观经济研究》2023年第11期14-24,127,共12页Macroeconomics

摘　　要：中国基础货币投放经历了被动投放到主动投放的转型,对基础货币投放机制的研究紧随政策实践变化。基础货币投放是宏观调控政策的重要一环,一直以来是货币金融政策研究的重要部分。本文建立时变参数向量自回归模型(TVP-VAR),分析基础货币投放、经济增长与物价水平之间的动态时变关系。研究结果表明:(1)基础货币投放与经济增长之间存在明显的动态关系,基础货币被动投放对经济增长的中长期效应要大于短期效应,但基础货币主动投放的中短期效应要大于长期效应。这既体现出中国货币政策精准投放效果显著,也反映出基础货币投放对经济的长期支撑效果有待提高。(2)基础货币投放对物价水平中长期影响均大于短期影响,而且中长期影响更加稳定。(3)不同基础货币投放阶段,被动投放和主动投放对经济增长和物价水平的影响时滞较为一致,但程度略有不同。本文认为应在优化基础货币投放工具的同时,拓宽基础货币投放渠道,从短、中、长期有针对性地制定政策计划。China's base money injection has undergone a transition from passive to active injection,and research on the mechanism of base money injection has closely followed changes in policy practice.Base money injection is an important part of macroeconomic regulation policies,and has always been an important part of monetary and financial policy research.This article establishes a TVP-VAR to analyze the dynamic time-varying relationship between base money injection,economic growth and price level.The results of the study show that:(1)There is an obvious dynamic relationship between base money injection and economic growth,and the medium-and long-term effects of passive base money injection on economic growth are greater than the short-term effects,but the medium-and short-term effects of active base money injection are greater than the long-term effects.This reflects not only the significant effect of China's monetary policy precision injection,but also reflects that the long-term support effect of base currency injection on the economy needs to be improved.(2)The medium-and long-term effects of base money investment on the price level are greater than the short-term effects,and the medium-and long-term effects are more stable.(3)At different stages of base money investment,the time lag between passive and active investment on economic growth and price level is relatively consistent,but the degree is slightly different.This article argues that we should optimize the base money investment tools at the same time,broaden the base money investment channels,from the short-to medium-to long-term targeted policy plans.

关 键 词：基础货币 TVP-VAR 经济增长 物价水平 

分 类 号：F822[经济管理—财政学] F124