人民币汇率变化对我国房价的影响研究  

Research on the Impact of RMB Exchange Rate Changes on China's Housing Prices

作　　者：刘晓薇 LIU Xiaowei

机构地区：[1]吉林财经大学,吉林长春136000

出　　处：《吉林金融研究》2023年第8期21-28,共8页Journal of Jilin Financial Research

摘　　要：人民币汇率和房地产价格作为我国经济系统中两个重要变量,是与国计民生紧密相连的关键所在。研究人民币汇率变化对我国房价的影响及其传导机制,从而提出相应的政策建议,对于稳定我国房价、防范房地产市场和汇率风险具有重要的现实意义。因此,本文通过建立VAR模型,以货币供给量和实际利用外商直接投资总额作为中间变量,实证检验了人民币汇率变化与房价变动的联动关系。检验结果表明,人民币汇率与我国房价正相关,但汇率对房价产生的直接影响相对较弱,主要通过影响短期国际资本流动和货币供给量,间接对房价产生影响,即主要通过汇率的预期效应,流动性效应和通货膨胀效应等机制进行传导。根据实证结论,本文从汇率制度、货币发行、国际资本流动和房地产市场供求关系几个方面提出相应政策建议,从而稳定汇率和房价,促进我国房地产市场良性发展。As two important variables in China's economic system,the exchange rate of RMB and the price of real estate are closely related to the national economy and the people's livelihood.It is of great practical significance to study the impact of RMB exchange rate changes on China's housing prices and its transmission mechanism,so as to put forward corresponding policy recommendations for stabilizing China's housing prices and preventing real estate market and exchange rate risks.Therefore,this paper empirically tests the linkage between the change of RMB exchange rate and the change of house price by establishing a VAR model and taking the money supply and the actual use of foreign direct investment as intermediate variables.The test results show that the RMB exchange rate is positively related to the house price in China,but the direct impact of the exchange rate on the house price is relatively weak,which mainly affects the short-term international capital flows and money supply,and indirectly affects the house price,that is,mainly through the expected effect,inflation effect of the exchange rate.According to the empirical conclusion,this paper puts forward corresponding policy suggestions from the aspects of exchange rate system,currency issuance,international capital flow and the relationship between supply and demand in the real estate market,so as to stabilize the exchange rate and house price and promote the healthy development of China's real estate market.

关 键 词：人民币汇率 房地产价格 VAR模型 

分 类 号：F830[经济管理—金融学]