中国情境下的地方领导人特质与政策创新扩散——基于荟萃分析方法的检验  

The Relationship Between Traits of Leader and Policy Innovation Diffusion in the Chinese Context:A Meta-analysis

作　　者：文宏[1] 李风山 Hong Wen;Fengshan Li

机构地区：[1]华南理工大学公共管理学院

出　　处：《公共行政评论》2023年第6期111-131,198,199,共23页Journal of Public Administration

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学重大攻关项目“重大突发公共卫生事件背景下的城市治理研究”(21JZD037)。

摘　　要：当前,学界对地方领导人特质与政策创新扩散之间的关系认知存在较大分歧,研究结论莫衷一是。论文使用荟萃分析方法,对中国情境下的49篇中英文定量文献,共107个效应量、12044个样本进行整合性检验,考察地方领导人的年龄、任期、学历、任职来源和行政级别对政策创新扩散的影响。研究表明:(1)在主效应检验上,任期、任职来源和行政级别对政策创新扩散具有积极效应,但年龄、学历与政策创新扩散的关系并不显著。(2)在调节效应检验上,政策类型在地方领导人特质与政策创新扩散的关系中起到调节作用,出版属性和领导人选择的调节作用不显著。这些结果表明,要审慎地看待现有研究关于地方领导人特质对政策创新扩散影响的实证结果,在后续政策创新扩散的研究中,也应更加审慎地提出关于这些变量间关系的研究假设。从研究贡献来看,论文首次运用荟萃分析方法检验了中国情境下地方领导人特质与政策创新扩散的关系,为二者之间的关系认知分歧提供了一个方向性的共识,有助于为后续探讨政策创新扩散与其他变量的关系研究提供理论指引,同时也能够为政策创新扩散的顶层设计提供参考。Current academic perceptions of the relationship between local leader traits and the diffusion of policy innovations remain widely divergent,and the research findings are mixed.This study used meta-analysis to test the integrality of 49 pieces of quantitative literature in English and Chinese,with a total of 107 effect sizes and 12,044 samples,in the Chinese context,to examine the effects of age,tenure,educational attainment,source of tenure,and administrative level of local leaders on the diffusion of policy innovations.The findings indicate that(1)tenure,source of tenure,and administrative rank exhibit positive effects on policy innovation diffusion,whereas the relationship between age,education,and policy innovation diffusion is not statistically significant.(2)Policy type serves as a moderator between local leaders'traits and policy innovation diffusion,while the moderating effects of publication attributes and leadership choice are not statistically significant.These results caution against the empirical findings of existing studies on the effects of local leader traits on the diffusion of policy innovations.Furthermore,this study suggests a need for caution in formulating research hypotheses pertaining to the relationships among these variables in subsequent studies on policy innovation diffusion.This study is the first to use meta-analysis to test the relationship between local leaders'traits and policy innovation diffusion in the Chinese context,thereby contributing a directional consensus on the perceived divergence in the relationship between the two.This helps provide theoretical guidelines for subsequent studies exploring the relationship between policy innovation diffusion and other variables.This study also provides a reference for the top-level design of policy innovation diffusion.

关 键 词：政策创新扩散 地方领导人特质 荟萃分析 中国情境 

分 类 号：D63[政治法律—政治学]