加沙冲突的背景与前景  

Background and Prospects of the Gaza Conflict

作　　者：牛新春[1] Niu Xinchun

机构地区：[1]中国现代国际关系研究院中东所

出　　处：《现代国际关系》2023年第11期27-41,154,共16页

摘　　要：此轮加沙冲突显示,哈马斯想打破以色列国家安全环境持续好转、巴勒斯坦问题被国际社会边缘化、阿拉伯国家不断同以色列建交及巴勒斯坦对约旦河西岸治理权不断萎缩的现状。冲突必然会改变现状,但新现状未必是哈马斯或以色列想要的。“两国方案”起死回生的可能性非常小,加沙和约旦河西岸陷入持久混乱的可能性则较大,战争外溢的可能性不能排除。近15年来美国与以色列采取“威慑+遏制”的政策对付“抵抗轴心”被证明是失败的,未来的政策调整面临多重困境。Hamas wants to break the status quo in which Israel's national security continues to improve,the Palestinian issue is marginalized by the international community,Arab countries continue to establish diplomatic relations with Israel,and Palestinian governance rights in the West Bank continue to shrink.This round of conflict in Gaza will inevitably change the status quo,but the new status quo may not be what Hamas or Israel want.The possibility of a two-state solution being revived is very small,while the possibility of Gaza and the West Bank falling into lasting chaos is greater.The possibility of war spillover cannot be ruled out.In the past 15 years,the United States and Israel have adopted a policy of"deterrence+containment"to deal with the"axis of resistance."This has proven to be a failure,and future policy adjustments will face multiple difficulties.

关 键 词：加沙冲突 中东政治 巴勒斯坦问题 

分 类 号：D815.4[政治法律—国际关系]