安徽省耕地多功能耦合协调时空演变及驱动因素研究  

Study on Spatial-temporal Evolution and Driving Factors of Cultivated Land Multifunctional Coupling Coordination Development in Anhui Province

作　　者：余庆年[1] 李巧珍 YU Qing-nian;LI Qiao-zhen(School of Public Administration,Hohai university,Nanjing 211100,Jiangsu,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学公共管理学院,江苏南京211100

出　　处：《国土资源科技管理》2023年第6期39-51,共13页Scientific and Technological Management of Land and Resources

摘　　要：本文以安徽省为研究区域,构建耕地多功能评价指标体系,运用耦合协调度模型和灰色关联度模型,对安徽省16个地级市耕地多功能的时空演变特征、耦合协调度及其驱动因素进行研究。研究结果表明:(1)2010—2020年期间,安徽省耕地生产、社会、生态功能存在区域差异,并且耕地生产、生态功能总体呈现增强趋势,耕地社会功能总体呈现减弱趋势;(2)2010—2020年期间安徽省耦合协调度水平总体呈先上升后下降的发展态势,但下降幅度较小,总体处于协调水平,耕地“生产—社会—生态”功能总体趋于协调发展;(3)安徽省耕地多功能耦合协调度受农村居民人均可支配收入、农村居民家庭人均消费支出、乡村从业人员数、第一产业产值比重、第二产业产值比重、规模以上工企业个数、人口城镇化率和城镇道路面积的影响较大,但自2015年起主要驱动因素逐渐从农民生活水平、农业发展水平过渡到工业发展水平。研究结果可为提高耕地利用综合效益、促进耕地优化管理提供依据。Taking Anhui Province as the study area,this paper establishes the evaluation index system of cultivated land multi-function,applies the coupling and coordination degree model and gray relational analysis model,to analyze the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics,coupling and coordination degree and driving factors of cultivated land multi-function in 16 prefecture-level cities in Anhui Province.Results show that:(1)From 2010 to 2020,there are regional differences in the production,social and ecological functions of cultivated land in Anhui Province,and the production and ecological function of cultivated land in Anhui Province tend to be enhanced,while the social function of cultivated land tends to be weakened.(2)From 2010 to 2020,the level of coupling and coordination of cultivated land in Anhui Province tends to increase and then decrease,but the rate of decrease is relatively small,and the overall level of coordination is at a harmonious level,and the “production-social-ecological” functions of cultivated land tend to develop in a harmonious way. (3) The coordination of multifunctional coupling of cultivated land in Anhui Province is influenced by the per capita disposable income of rural residents, per capita consumption expenditure of rural households,rural employees,the proportion of output value of the primary industry and secondary industry,the number of industrial enterprises above the scale,the urbanization rate of population and the area of urban roads. However,the main driving factors gradually transition from farmers’ living standards and the level of agricultural development to the level of industrial development from 2015 onwards. The results of the study can provide a basis for improving the comprehensive benefits of cultivated land utilization and promoting optimal management of cultivated land.

关 键 词：耕地多功能 耦合协调度 灰色关联法 安徽省 

分 类 号：F323.211[经济管理—产业经济]