Seasonal Prediction Skill and Biases in GloSea5 Relating to the East Asia Winter Monsoon  

作　　者：Daquan ZHANG Lijuan CHEN Gill MMARTIN Zongjian KE 

机构地区：[1]China Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies,National Climate Centre,Beijing 100081,China [2]Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD),Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044,China [3]Met Office Hadley Centre,Met Office,Exeter EX13PB,UK

出　　处：《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》2023年第11期2013-2028,共16页大气科学进展（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the State Key Program of the National Natural Science of China(Grant No.41730964);the National Key Research and Development Program on Monitoring,Early Warning and Prevention of Major Natural Disaster(2018YFC1506000);the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41975091 and 42175047);National Basic Research Program of China(2015CB453203);UK-China Research&Innovation Partnership Fund through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership(CSSP)China as part of the Newton Fund.

摘　　要：The simulation and prediction of the climatology and interannual variability of the East Asia winter monsoon(EAWM),as well as the associated atmospheric circulation,was investigated using the hindcast data from Global Seasonal Forecast System version 5(GloSea5),with a focus on the evolution of model bias among different forecast lead times.While GloSea5 reproduces the climatological means of large-scale circulation systems related to the EAWM well,systematic biases exist,including a cold bias for most of China’s mainland,especially for North and Northeast China.GloSea5 shows robust skill in predicting the EAWM intensity index two months ahead,which can be attributed to the performance in representing the leading modes of surface air temperature and associated background circulation.GloSea5 realistically reproduces the synergistic effect of El Niño–Southern Oscillation(ENSO)and the Arctic Oscillation(AO)on the EAWM,especially for the western North Pacific anticyclone(WNPAC).Compared with the North Pacific and North America,the representation of circulation anomalies over Eurasia is poor,especially for sea level pressure(SLP),which limits the prediction skill for surface air temperature over East Asia.The representation of SLP anomalies might be associated with the model performance in simulating the interaction between atmospheric circulations and underlying surface conditions.

关 键 词：East Asia winter monsoon(EAWM) Global Seasonal Forecast System version 5(GloSea5) El Niño–Southern Oscillation(ENSO) prediction skill model bias 

分 类 号：P45[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]